Predicting Nikon's iteration cycle is currently about as accurate as your friendly Taro card reading. I'll give it a try, anyway. However, since only a few Z System cameras have been updated so far, and because the waits have been variable, my predictions are going to be simple (and potentially wrong).
Here's what Nikon has done so far in mirrorless:
Back in the DSLR era we saw an extended period where consumer cameras iterated every year, while higher models had two year cycles (rotated as small update, big update for the top pro models). In the last ten years that eroded to something less predictable as Nikon scaled back their DSLR efforts and began their concentration on mirrorless.
It seems likely at this point that most Z System cameras are on perhaps four year update cycles. That would predict:
- 2028 — Z50III, Z6IV
- 2027 — ZfII, Z8II
- 2026 — Z30II
- 2025 — Z9II, ZfcII (bold indicates likely EXPEED8 cameras)
- overdue: Z5II, Z7III
When a product is overdue on that prediction cycle it's likely because either Nikon didn't originally plan an update for that model, or they've changed their thinking about that model and are making a major shift in its design approach. It currently seems unlikely that Nikon will discontinue any of the nine current model lines (Zf, Zfc, Z30, Z50, Z5, Z6, Z7, Z8, Z9). But they make substantive shifts in what models do in the future.
I'm on record as predicting:
- The Z5 may not get an update. Nikon milked the D600 for 10+ years, and the Z5 still has the D600's image sensor, which keeps costs way down. Alternatively, a Z5II wouldn't appear until a Z4 can take its place as a low-cost entry model.
- The Z7III update is linked with the Z8II update. Both can't be 45mp/EXPEED7 cameras. Scenario #1: Z7III becomes a 61mp+ slow-working landscape/travel camera. Scenario #2: Z7III waits for the Z8II to become fast 61mp+/EXPEED8 camera before it can take over the 45mp/EXPEED7 slot.
