Thom Hogan

Nikon today announced the ZR camera just prior to IBC, the big European broadcasting trade show. 

To understand the ZR you have to first understand that Nikon had two elephants at different ends of a room: the DSLR-replacement Z models, and the RED-designed video models. Those are very distinctly different elephants, though, almost different species. Nikon needed a way to begin to bridge between them. 

The other problem is that Canon and Sony, especially, have been actively bridging their elephants. Sony’s FX line started at true Hollywood level, and has now bridged right down to the C-type Alphas in the mirrorless still camera lineup. Yesterday, Canon announced their C50, which also puts Canon’s Cinema line much closer to their mirrorless models.

To create the ZR, Nikon basically fused parts of its two elephants: the ZR is mostly Z6III electronics, with some RED-infused logic and design and a couple of new things. Losses from the Z6III side include no built-in EVF, a different card slot set (CFexpress/microSD), and a really trimmed down body (in all dimensions; it’s quite small). Gains from the RED side include a high resolution 4” articulating Rear LCD that is 1000 nits bright and DCI-P3 compatible, more use of RED IP (3D LUTs built in) in the setting choices and monitoring options (including 12-bit RED raw),  32-bit floating audio, and more. One of the “more’s” is a new hot shoe with additional electrical contacts.

The result is a soap bar style camera—no forward extending hand grip—that’s physically smaller than the Z6III body, and with a more video-centric UX. Buttons are labeled the “video way” with numbers (and stenciled defaults), a rocker switch for power zoom, and much more. Yes, you can still take still images with it, but the primary interface is tilted to video (e.g. the opposite of the previous Nikon Z models). Oh, and the MENU button is now a mobile style hamburger icon.

As a reminder, the RED elephant the ZR bridges to is the RED Raptor-X. The Raptor-X is a Super35 (near DX) global shutter, while the ZR is a full frame partially stacked shutter. While both top out at 6K video, the Raptor-X does that at a Hollywood DCI (17:9) aspect ratio, while the ZR does so at consumer 16:9. 

Price for body only is US$2200.

Hear Mark Comon and I talk about the new Nikon ZR (and other recent Nikon announcements) on September 12th at the Creative Photo Academy. Tickets are free for this Webcast. See https://creativephotoacademy.com/event/nikon-discussion/ for details.

Last week I pointed out Nikon’s successful growth in mirrorless since introduction. But hidden in those numbers are a potential problem. Let’s first recap what those (rounded) numbers were:

• 2018 — 190,000 units
• 2019 — 320,000, gain of 130,000
• 2020 — 222,914 (pandemic year)
• 2021 — 290,000 (supply chain issues out of the pandemic)
• 2022 — 530,000, gain of 240,000
• 2023 — 630,000, gain of 100,000
• 2024 — 760,000, gain of 130,000

Those “gain of” numbers in that list are Nikon’s new problem: exactly what can they do to sell an additional 100,000+ units in 2025 (and again in 2026, 2027, et.al.)? From early results, it looks like 2025 should be close to another six figure unit gain, though the tariff situation in the US is eroding that potential now. The two pieces generating the 2025 gain will probably be the Z5II launch, another late year launch, plus firmware updates making cameras better and more desirable. 

Nikon’s not likely to keep the firmware furnace fired up in 2026, as that should be a new technology launch year for them. So the question is whether or not a Z9II launch vehicle could generate the six-figure gain they desire by itself, or what needs to be launched with or after it in 2026 to meet their expectations? 

Prior to the pandemic I was writing that the “bottom” of the ILC market was probably 6m units, but that it could end up as low as 4m. The actual “bottom” turned out to be 5.3m units. For the last five years the actual mirrorless units shipped out of Japan have been:

• 2.9m
• 3.1m
• 4.1m
• 4.8m
• 5.6m

However, the DSLR units have been plummeting during this same period (now less than 1m), meaning that the overall ILC growth from market bottom to the end of 2024 is about 25% across the last three years. Canon and Nikon have been basically giving up DSLR volume for mirrorless volume, which has made the mirrorless gains look great, but effectively, the combined ILC unit market volume isn’t changing all that much.

For the Z System to continue to grow faster than the mirrorless market, Nikon needs 100,000+ additional units a year, probably substantially more. That implies more cameras or a faster upgrade cycle. 

Nikon today announced a new version of the Zf camera, the Zf Silver. This is a “panda-style” where the top plate is a silver metallic texture and the bottom is the usual leatherette panels and black. List price is US$2200. In addition to a Zf Silver, you can now get the Zf in three new colors for US$2300. Those new colors are Cognac Brown, Teal Blue, and Mauve Pink. This is in addition to the already available Moss Green, Stone Gray, and Sepia Brown.

But wait, if you order today…

Nikon pre-announced a firmware update for the Zf, which will add three sizes and strengths of grain that can be added to Picture Controls (and yes, this works with videos that use Picture Controls). Apparently this is also going to be a function that can be added to Flexible Picture Controls, as well as regular ones.

With Nikkei’s annual release of unit volume numbers for various camera categories, it’s time to take a look at how Nikon fared in the first six years of the Z System. Without further ado:

This is percent of mirrorless camera shipments, again from Nikkei’s published numbers. I’ve annotated the chart to show the models introduced in each year in red (impact of sales of those models would tend to be mostly reflected in the following year results).

One common comment I hear a lot is that Fujifilm is stealing Nikon’s thunder. Consider Fujifilm’s market share volume for mirrorless, though (Nikon is again blue, while Fujifilm is the green line in this chart):

Quite a bit of Fujifilm’s recent “growth” on their digital side was actually the X100VI, not their mirrorless cameras. Fujifilm has a higher market share than Nikon in overall cameras, but lower in mirrorless.

Okay, so at this point you probably want to see “all players.” Here’s that chart:

The results in 2024, by the way, are about where we were most of the time in the DSLR market, with the one change being that Sony and Nikon have reversed positions. Canon and Sony in 2024 had 70.5% of the shipments. Canikony, my name for the triopoly, had 85.1%. Given that we’ve had this kind of duo/trio dominance dating well back into the film SLR market, one would have to conclude that the interchangeable lens camera market seems to always devolve to no more than a triopoly, a classic Trout & Ries point about how most markets behave.

Bottom line is that Nikon has reasonably successfully pulled off their DSLR to mirrorless transition, though the delay in doing so probably cost them a place in the market share race. The challenge for Nikon now falls on the post-Z9 generation cameras, which will need another market changing innovation to fully solidify their triopoly position. 

Of course, there are other things Nikon could do that could boost their overall camera market growth (as opposed to mirrorless only). In particular, two come to mind: (a) a DX or FX compact; and (b) a camera that helps them bridge the gap between the current Z System and the current RED system. My suspicion is that they’ll do all three: another innovation cycle, a compact based on the Z9 cycle, and a video camera that has RED DNA in it to bridge from mirrorless to pro video. The only real outstanding question is when.

Nikon likes to follow patterns that are known to work. Will they do that again in 2026?

What's the pattern, you ask?

• 2016 — D5, D500
• 2007 — D3, D300
• 2001/2002 — D1h/D1x, D100

Some argue that there were other "duals" that were attempted (D3x, D90, or the ill-fated D4, D400 where one got postponed and the other cancelled partly due to the earthquake, tsunami, and flood). 

Everyone pretty much expects a Z9II in 2026 at this point. Canon is known to be readying their R7 Mark II. Would Nikon make another dual technology-based set of announcements as a result? 

I see some signs and options that point to that possibility. First, the Z9 generation of full frame cameras is now basically complete. Yes, I know those of you who want a Z7III are shouting at me at the moment, but I've said it before, the Z7III isn't a likely camera given 24mp Pixel shift shooting and a Z8 standing in the way. The Z8 needs to upscale in some fashion before a Z7III really feels likely. Indeed, I'd tend to say that a ZfII is more likely to be the Z7III replacement at this point, as moving the 45mp image sensor to that platform makes more sense than building a direct Z6III/Z8 competitor. 

Should Nikon (finally) provide the Z9 firmware update that catches it back up, the lineup of Zf, Z5II, Z6III, Z8, and Z9 would be compelling and complete. What would be needed next is a new technology statement to start the whole process over again. That's exactly the points where Nikon has made their dual announcements. The D1/D100 pairing was the proclamation that film SLRs are over, DSLRs are the future. The D3/D300 pairing was the introduction of EXPEED and full frame, both of which were Nikon's clear future. The D5/D500 was the last escalation of the DSLR. We didn't quite get a fully aligned pairing with mirrorless: the Z6/Z7 were announced together, but shipped separately, plus the Z50 (like the D100) came a year later. 

Nikon's in a strong position with still cameras at the moment, and about to be strong across both still and video as the RED acquisition picks up speed. They've been slowly gaining market share, getting strong press, and garnering customer loyalty with the firmware updates. It's time for Nikon to once again make a technology statement that has them standing out from the rest of the makers. In my mind, that would be a Z9II and Z90 pairing using new technologies. 

The operative question, however, is whether those new technologies are available? DGO (dual gain optimization) is. Global shutter probably is, though just improving the sensor's internal bandwidth is just a good an option for the moment. Photon detection is close (e.g. GigaJot), but I'm not 100% sure how close as they've gone silent running other than blasting out new patents. Real AI (beyond machine learning) is almost ready. Another clear uptick in EXPEED speed is more than possible, though expensive. 

I've been clear about the one thing that wouldn't serve Nikon well: not completing the Z9 firmware updates and instead putting them into a Z9II that is only modestly upgraded otherwise. From a marketing and customer perspective that would be like running 24 miles of a marathon and then stopping to shoot yourself in the foot. 

This year has moved fast for me. New cameras, new books, new updates, too much new work, all while trying to contemplating and developing my own 2026 announcements. I woke up this morning realizing that we're now not far from the best "announce point" for Nikon (prior to the 2026 Winter Olympics). Technically, that point should be in December, though it could drift to January. So what is it we'll get? In order of possible excitement:

• No new Z9 level product
• A Z9 firmware update
• A modest Z9II update
• A consequential Z9II update (with a potential DX sibling)

The last one could be a development announcement prior to the Olympics with some mules/prototypes at the games and a later-in-2026 launch (the DX sibling would be the surprise at the launch). The other two would really need to happen prior to the games. 

Personally, I try not to look forward too much with this Web site, as we still have a lot to do in supporting the past and current products. 

The Z6III today got a significant firmware update, to version 2.00. This update contains three headline features:

• Birds. Subject detection gets the apparently coveted Birds option. The primary differential between this and Animal I believe has to do with smaller birds on busy backgrounds, where false recognition can sometimes happen on the older Z6III firmware.
• Auto capture. The Z6III is the third camera to get this function, which allows you to configure the camera to respond to motion, subjects, and focus to take photos without human intervention. This is a complicated function that even Z9 users—where it first appeared—struggle with.
• C2PA image authentication. This apparently works with Nikon Imaging Cloud providing the certificate being used. Nikon notes there are some limitations when using this function (e.g. camera features not available). 

Additional new features that many desired include:

• Focus limiter switch. The camera-based focus limiting that first appeared with the Z8 3.00 firmware.
• JPEG fine for Pre-Release Capture. You can now set the compression level for the JPEGs created with the pre-release system.
• Disable viewfinder with Rear LCD deployment. An extension of the Monitor Mode options that looks at the position of the Rear LCD. 
• Combined Pixel shift shooting and Focus shift shooting. As with the Z8 3.00 firmware.
• Recall Shooting Functions was added. This was a noticeable missing customization on the original Z6III firmware, now addressed.
• UVC/UAC support. Nikon continues to move away from requiring their Webcam Utility software, allowing direct USB-C streaming.
• Magnification cancelled with shutter release press. The ability to cancel zoom during composing with a half press of the shutter release has been added.

A couple other minor odds and ends were addressed, as well. Basically, Nikon seems to have attempted to bring the Z6III firmware pretty much up to the Z8 level with this release.

But that once again bodes the question: where's the Z9 firmware update? All the more recent cameras are collecting functions and capabilities that the so-called flagship camera is now missing. Let's hope Nikon is saving the best for last. The notion that the Z9 doesn't need another firmware update because a Z9II is probably just around the corner doesn't fly with me. Deliberately withholding function from a flagship is not something a camera company should ever do, as it effectively debases the notion of flagship and eventually punishes what should be the best customers. 

Today's headline categorizes what I'd say about still cameras from Nikon today: the Z System pretty much has a mirrorless camera for everyone, and virtually all of it is highly competitive. 

That's not what I hear from others. The complaints about "where's the Z7III," "where's the D500 replacement?", and "where's global shutter?" pretty much all fail to properly assess the current lineup. (The answers to those questions are: Z8, Z8, and not really needed.)

Don't get me wrong. I'm looking forward to the products Nikon makes next. They've shown good discipline and insight into what's really needed by their loyal customers, even if they don't produce exactly what the customer asks for. I long ago learned that the customer is the worst designer, so what the consumer requests isn't always what should be built. It's taken awhile to dislodge Nikon from their paternal "we always know best" attitude in design, but the Z9 generation shows that they're finally listening to and considering the pain points their customers actually have. That's produced a current lineup that's pretty darned good from bottom to top.

Behind my thoughts are a couple of premises you need to know about:

• Any sub-US$1000 product is going to be compromised. Because of tariffs, that number probably is now US$1200. 
• When a product is compromised, you're not going to get exactly what you ask for, period.

You'll note that the above bullets pretty much defines DX now: whatever DX camera you get will have compromises inherent in it. Perhaps Nikon will create a higher-end DX camera at some point, but I'm no longer sure that they need to. If such a future DX product ends up US$1500 or more, it's competing with a highly capable FX one.

Which brings me to Nikon's current primary FX lineup: Zf, Z5II, Z6III, Z8. That's legacy, all-purpose, some added performance, and total performance, respectively. All take remarkably good photos. The four, taken together, probably address 80% of Nikon's customer base, maybe more. 

Can I imagine a better four? Sure, but would I really be making the cameras better in ways that would make enough people want to update? I'm not certain about that. But let me take a stab at it:

• Zf — Biggest need is lenses with aperture rings and more customization capabilities (the Zf has no U# user settings, nor Banks, and a limited number of customizable buttons). 
• Z5II — Short term it's all about how low can the price go. Long term the most significant thing to address would be the rolling shutter, so eventually slide in the partially-stacked sensor.
• Z6III — The pieces are there, but the execution is a little sloppy. Panasonic seems to be using the same image sensor now and getting better dynamic range and less jittery deep shadows on video, for instance. The bigger, brighter EVF doesn't always show up in useful ways. 
• Z8 — #1 need: raw Pre-Release Capture. The Z6III EVF would be nice to have. Fixing user settings/banks and rethinking Recall shooting function would be useful. 

Notice how I didn't ask for more pixels or faster frame rates? ;~)

It's clear to me that most of us will be riding the current horses for awhile and enjoying it. Perhaps the next generation opens up some more capabilities and performance, and I'd be fine with that happening at the Z9II level, but the current FX Four are really all I need. They likely are all you need, too. 

Enjoy the ride.