The Nikon Z5 ships to customers and will be available in stores on August 28th, and that date has been public since the launch. Today, Panasonic has gone public with their intent to introduce a new camera, the S5, on September 2nd. Because of all the press leaks, we know that it is also an entry level full frame camera that would be competitive with the Z5. Coincidence in the timing? I think not. Sounds a bit thirsty to me. Certainly FUDish (put fear, uncertainty, and doubt into competitive product buyers).
One problem that Canon, Nikon, Panasonic, and Sony all share is this: they want to sell you a full frame mirrorless camera. It's the future—not necessarily the one you asked for—for a number of reasons. Mirrorless is the future because it reduces costs and manufacturing complexity. Full frame is the future because while it sells in lower volume, it also has more gross product margin in it. Lower cost, higher margin, get it? (I first pointed out that this would be the case almost ten years ago.)
If you look at the CIPA numbers over time, what you see is that while unit volume contracted quickly, revenue didn't collapse as fast; the camera markers have been moving upscale for awhile. They're (somewhat) okay with a smaller market if it means close to the same number of dollars.
But what's looking to be brewing is this:
- Entry: Canon RP, Nikon Z5, Panasonic S5, and (rumored) Sony A5
- Enthusiast: Canon R6, Nikon Z6, Panasonic S1, and Sony A7 Mark III
- High Megapixel: Canon R5, Nikon Z7, Panasonic S1R, and Sony A7R Mark IV
- Video Specialty: Panasonic S1H, Sony A7S Mark III
- Pro Sports: Sony A9 Mark II
Full frame volume has to be something less than 500k units in the current environment, so that's a lot of categories and competition trying to play in a small space. Canon and Nikon are conspicuously missing in the Pro Sports category after having completely dominating that in DSLRs, so you have to bet they're readying something there.
But in such a small market it's unlikely that we can have four winners. As Ries and Trout would predict, it's likely to be two winners and a third that's marginal in terms of profitability. Nikon seems to think that they'll be one of the winners solely on how good their product is—and yes, it's good; engineering is not a Nikon liability—and the fact that they were one of the winners in the past. That's not the way it will work out, methinks.
Nikon's launch-by-press-release of the Z5 is being compared by potential customers to launch-by-events from Canon, Sony, and now Panasonic. As I've written many times before, marketing is important to success, and marketing is about controlling the narrative. Nikon is no longer controlling the narrative. Moreover, when they do try to do so, they're not doing so effectively (still waiting on them to clearly explain why the Z mount opens up significant new optical design decisions, for instance, but there are many more examples).
What we have going on in full frame mirrorless right now is a complex multidimensional chess match. We seem to be missing the Nikon marketing pawns on the board, though. And without them, the FUD knight hits sometimes will land a blow. We don't know where Nikon's king is, or that there's a clear playing strategy that's taking into account what the others are doing.
Don't despair, Zusers, all that's really missing is clear, concentrated, and convincing communications. We've seen Nikon suddenly get chatty before (the D3/D300 twinnage was the last really great example of that). Let's hope they decide to do so again soon.
Nikon, if you're out there reading this, the way you overcome FUD and fight off competitors is HCT (hope, certainty, and trust). That lens road map you put out for the very first time with the Z launch was part of the "hope" thing you need to do more of. We now need a revised lens road map, and we need more certainty that you heard the complaints about the first generation cameras (single slot, no grip, etc.), and that you know where you don't match up well against competitors (pixel shift, for instance). It would also be nice if we could trust you on delivery. Too many lenses are in short (or no) supply, and accessories are still a total mess.
