In games like soccer and ice hockey, the thing you never want to do is score an "own goal." That's when one of your players does something that triggers a score for the other team.
Well, Nikon's dysfunction at the moment reveals that they've basically done just that. And it involves two lenses, the 24-70mm f/4 and the 24-200mm f/4-6.3. By bundling a lens that Nikon can't deliver to current orders with the Z5 (24-200mm) and not bundling a lens that some actually want with the Z5 (24-70mm), Nikon has basically managed to lower their own sales volume. Happy 2nd quarter financial results, Nikon.
Let's examine the 24-70mm for a moment. the Z6+24-70mm kit is US$2400. The implied price of the lens is US$600. Meanwhile, to buy the Z5+24-70mm—which you have to do separately—the bundle is US$2400. The real price of the lens is US$1000. Way to slap a US$400 penalty on potential Z5 buyers, Nikon.
Meanwhile, most dealers received only one or two 24-200mm's in their first shipment, and have just received notice of another couple coming their way this week. So, worst case the small dealer will have now seen two such lenses, a big dealer between three and six. And that's at a real price of US$900. Yet here's Nikon bundling it with the Z5 for an implied lens price of US$800. Worse still, the Z5+24-200mm bundle is US$200 less than either the Z5 or Z6 with the 24-70mm lens!
These are insane product line management pricing decisions. I want to see the spreadsheet in Tokyo that says this is the maximization of revenue for the quantity being produced of the four products in question. Because it's wrong.
So you're probably asking me questions right now:
- Am I sure that there's demand for the Z5 with the 24-70mm f/4 lens? Yes. Absolutely, but at a US$500-600 implied price. If this is the lens you want with your Z5, you don't order a Z5 right now.
- Is there demand for the Z5 with the 24-200mm f/4-6.3 lens? Some, but it's lower than expected, so Nikon is leaving US$100 on the table for every lens they produce when they kit it up like that. They may end up losing more if they have to discount that bundle to move the boxes they've made.
- Is there demand for the 24-200mm f/4-6.3 lens on its own at full retail price? Absolutely. Back-ordered everywhere here in the US.
Now maybe Nikon's thinking that a Z6 update fixes all this mess. But the Z6 is only being discounted US$200 right now, and the 24-70mm f/4 lens is really the main driver of the US$2400 discounted bundle price. If all this is pricing mess is in anticipation of a Z6 update, the implication is that Z6 pricing goes up a notch (say body back to at least US$2000 and implied lens discount down to US$200, so US$2800 for the bundle instead of US$2400). And what makes me think Nikon will again try to bundle the 24-200mm with a newly announced camera when they can't meet demand from existing Z System users?
Given the lack of demand for the Z5 right now—again, caused by Nikon's own actions—my guess is that Nikon will have to put the Z5 on sale when a Z6 update appears to make everything look "more normal."
Nikon proved they could juggle two balls (Z6 and Z7). They have failed to juggle three balls (Z5, Z6, and Z7).
