We have 5, 6, 7, and 9 defined in the Z System, so that leaves 8 (and maybe 3 or 4) to be defined by Nikon at some point.
Let's start with some knowns:
- The Z5, Z6, Z7 are "consumer" design cameras. By that I mean that they feature the rectangular 10-pin, no PC Sync, C1/C3 instead of Banks, Mode dial, and a host of other simplifications.
- The Z5, Z6, Z7 are all single grip bodies (with the most recent Z6 II and Z7 II having a vertical grip option).
- The Z9 is a "pro" design camera: circular 10-pin, PC Sync, Mode button, and likely far more.
- The Z9 is likely 45mp+. To get to 8K video it will have to be a high density sensor.
- The Z9 is a double-grip body.
I think you can start to see what's likely from the above. Let me take it by pieces. A Z8 is likely to be:
- a "pro" design camera: circular 10-pin, PC Sync, Mode button, etc.
- a single grip body (to offer a pro option of body style).
The operative question is what will the image sensor be? Nikon has done quite a few variations on the "top two" body choices:
- D1h/D1x — difference was basically pixel count/density.
- D2h/D2x — difference was dramatically different sensor designs, again with different pixel count/density.
- D3/D700 — different bodies with small functional differences, but same sensor.
- D3s/D3x — difference was basically pixel count/density.
- D4/D800 — very different bodies, very different sensors.
- D5/D850 — very different bodies, very different sensors.
So basically, there are three choices: (1) same body, different sensor; (2) different bodies, same sensor; and (3) different bodies, different sensors.
The easiest to create would probably be #2 (ala D3/D700). That's basically taking the same parts and drafting them up differently. If Nikon is in a hurry to get to a Z8, I'd guess this would be the most likely candidate. Not only can such work be done in a slightly lagged parallel to the Z9, but it's mostly mechanical/manufacturing impacts, not smarts/logic/control changes. The problem with this approach is pricing. I don't think Nikon could effectively do the D3/D700 pricing differential again, as a Z9 at US$6500 and a Z8 at US$3000 would mean very few Z9 sales.
I'm guessing that given both the recent trend in Nikon high-end pairings and the fact that Nikon doesn't really have an A7R Mark IV competitor, we're going to see Nikon pursue option #3 again: a single grip body with a high resolution image sensor. Everyone's been guessing that Nikon would at some point use the Sony Semiconductor 60mp sensor, but I'm guessing they won't. Not enough differentiation between 45/50mp and 60mp, thus they'd be better off doing #2 with the same sensor instead of #3 using an existing Sony sensor.
If the Z9 is 45mp as I suspect it is, then a Z8 would have to be at least 80mp to be clearly differentiated at the sensor. (Why do I think the Z9 is 45mp? Some rumors out of Japan mostly. Hard to tell if those rumors are correct, but staying at 45mp makes sense to me for a number of reasons.)
The real question is "what does the market want?" They want #2. But they also want a #2 that's cheaper than it would have to be to make sense to Nikon.
Which, believe it or not, brings us to the Z90 (or Z70 or Z80; Nikon's naming is flexible enough that it could be any of those). If a Z8 is #2, then it essentially gets the crowd that would be interested in the Z90. It would be difficult to deliver a Z90 under that scenario and get any meaningful sales, particularly given the lens situation (buzz, buzz). On the other hand, if a Z8 is something different than a Z9 (megapixel monster versus speed monster), a Z90 that's a miniature Z9 at an APS-C price starts to make much more sense. Nikon has been successful at the FX/DX pairing twice now (D3/D300, D5/D500), and I don't see why a third time would be any different.
So, my vote for Nikon's future Z lineup:
- Z30 — no (optional) EVF basic entry price leader
- Z50 II — add some missing pieces and upgrade this excellent camera
- Z90 — 33mp+ with as much of the Z9 tech as possible (might not be 8K, but 6K is okay)
- Z5 II — minor updates to this solid, entry-level full frame
- Z6 III — move the Z6 a bit further away from the Z5
- Z7 III — fill in all the missing pieces for this popular enthusiast camera (e.g. pixel shift)
- Z8 — the pro megapixel monster that starts to compete with MF; a true studio camera
- Z9 — the pro speed monster that competes with the Sony A1 and essentially replaces the D6 long term
Oh, you also wanted to know "when" the Z8 will appear? I've heard nothing that would give me any indication, so I don't think it's in the foreseeable future. Thus, "late 2022" would be a best case scenario (the Z9 is "late 2021", which I'm told means Nov/Dec for general availability).
