Plenty of future Z System camera rumors are circulating, and this time, it is literal circulation, as in Site A says something and that is picked up by Site B, which is then picked up by Site C, and then Site A uses Site C's interpretation to further the circulation.
As far as I know, the Z System cameras known to be readied for customers are: Zfc, Z30, and Z9, in that order. Zfc now, Z30 as soon as parts allow, Z9 in November. Further than that the crystal ball has cataracts and a very fuzzy view.
The camera that keeps getting mentioned as next after the Z9 is the mythical Z8. The most common rumor circulating is that it will be 60mp using the Sony Semiconductor sensor. I believe that rumor to have actually evolved from Nikon's Z9 sensor testing. As far as I know, Nikon tested three different 45mp+ sensor "bases" for the Z9 before settling on their own design. But I suspect that this multiple sensor prototype testing was really all just benchmarking against their own design in the first place.
I've gotten no hints from any source about what a Z8 might be and when it would come. Okay, that's not quite correct: there's a body patent many are interpreting as the Z8 because it's essentially a "bigger Z7" (extended bottom area). Personally, I'm perplexed why you'd extend the Z7 body downward without adding anything in that extra area (no controls, buttons, displays, etc., extend into it, so what's in there? It isn't battery given that there is no new access door). The common assumption I've seen on the rumor sites is that the body extension is for heat dissipation. However heat dissipates upward in normal operation, so it seems unlikely you'd put something at the bottom to dissipate it.
The Zfc tells us that a simple and logical Z System lineup is not exactly what Nikon is pursuing (e.g. Z30, Z50, Z70, Z5, Z6, Z7. Z8, Z9). Beyond the Z5, Z6, and Z7, Nikon seems to be "targeting" and feeling out different aspects of the market. Those three full frame mirrorless models basically are D610, D750, and D850 replicas, mirrorless versions of the three full frame DSLRs that paved much of Nikon's post D3/D700 full frame DSLR success. That Nikon replicated those three DSLRs in the Z System seems to indicate that this is where Nikon thinks their strength is. (Yes, I know the Z7 isn't quite a D850, but the Z5 turned out better than a D610; the transition was never going to be a perfect one-for-one match, but it's awful close.)
The Sony A1 probably changed the Z9 target slightly, which may explain some of the delay (most of the delay is simply getting everything done, tested, and into production). I suspect the Z9 is a triple-gain sensor, trying to edge into better response at both low and high ISO values, which would make it more the general purpose, all-around pro camera that Sony is trumpeting with the A1.
But where does that leave the Z7 III and Z8? And how would a Z7 III be different than a Z8?
The usual response is that the Z7 III would continue at 45mp and a Z8 would be many more megapixels (minimum 60mp). I suppose that's possible, but personally I'd just as soon have an improved Z7 III. Give it pixel shift and a derivative of the Z9 sensor and you're done (okay, you need a bunch more stuff in a III, which must be tick not a tock cycle, but most people are only talking about image sensor and pixels in terms of the Z8).
The Zfc opened up the possibility of a Zf unfortunately, and frankly, I believe a full frame Zf makes more sense long-term than a Zfc. Couple the fact that a Zf would be easier to create quickly than a Z8 that is unique between the Z7 III and Z9, and thus it isn't difficult to see that a Zf might come before a Z8. But then again, it might not.
I think anything beyond the Z9 is pure speculation at this point, though. Zfc, Z30, Z9. That's the known coming Z camera parade. Z50 II, Z5 II, Z6 III, and Z7 III would seem to be givens at some point. That leaves lots of gaps and targets for Nikon to try to fill, and a very unclear picture of how they'll do that.
My advice to Nikon: the gap that is most urgent to deal with is the Z90 (D500 equivalent). Fujifilm keeps trying to sneak up to the D500 with the X-T# line, but is still not there yet. Sony is distracted and iterating other things. But I fully expect Canon to step in with an APS-C RF body to take over the duties of the 90D/7D Mark II models, and to do so within the next 12 months. What could have been a clear leadership position for Nikon with a Z90 is a window that will eventually close.
All that said, the real issue for Nikon mirrorless is still lenses. Nikon's leaning too heavily on the FTZ to make up gaps, and we still have AI-S and D-type lens deficits that aren't addressed by the FTZ. I believe it's more important for Nikon to address lens gap issues at this point than it is to address holes in the body lineup. Fortunately, the lens and body engineering is fairly separate, so both can be pursued in parallel. Nevertheless, the lens spigot has only been trickling new offerings in the last year (six to be exact) and needs to be opened up more. Nikon's fully feeling the result of not cooperating with third-party lens makers now, while Sony continues to benefit from that.
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Meanwhile, I've been doing a bit of analysis of the available market analysis on Nikon stock. At the moment, the five analysts I know that follow Nikon produce one sell and four hold ratings of various levels of confidence. The Morgans apparently disagree: JPMorgan currently says Downgrade, while Morgan Stanley says Upgrade ;~). Wallet Investor says Nikon stock is a "bad investment" (1-year window), expecting it to be down 30% (I'm pretty confident they're wrong).
Out of Tokyo I've heard whisper numbers that indicate Nikon thinks they'll slightly beat their Q1 forecast and will clearly beat their H1 forecast. If Imaging sales/profits were not coming in at least to expectations, I think the analyst ratings I'm currently seeing would be much more bleak than they are currently. Nikon's stock price has recovered from a late 2020 low to a 12-month high. Bottom line: Nikon isn't going out of business. It's not going out of the Imaging business. Things are going mostly to plan in Tokyo. (Disclosure: I do not own, and have never owned, Nikon stock or the US derivative of it. Nothing in the above statements should be construed as investment advice.)
