We now have the Z6 II and Z7 II as updates to the original Z camera models. The all-knowing Internet seems to have pronounced these updates as "modest."
That's not entirely unusual. In the D1 through D6 sequence, the odd-numbered models (eight years apart) were the bigger changes while the even numbered models tended to reflect smaller, or less dramatic changes. Nikon's research and engineering teams have schedules set up in a way that the biggest changes happen on eight year boundaries, slightly less big changes happen on four year boundaries, and more modest changes happen on two year boundaries.
That's a generalization, of course, but it's a useful one in trying to figure out how camera models change over time.
The II generation Z's came two years after the originals. We'd expect the III generation to come in another two years (give or take; you'll see why I say that in a moment).
Thus, we'd expect a "bigger" change between the Z6 III and the Z6 II than we saw in the Z6 II versus the original Z6. Ditto on the Z7 side of things, though that's a little more complicated, as it sits closer to what will eventually be the high end of the Z system.
I think it's safe to say that EXPEED7 is going to be in the III's. As cameras get more sophisticated and handle more data bandwidth, they need more horsepower under the hood, and EXPEED is where that lives. It's possible that EXPEED, or some portion of it, moves to the image sensor (as in stacked sensor design). At the Z6/Z7 model level, though, I don't expect that to happen soon. The costs associated with stacked sensor development and deployment are high, so it's going to happen first in very high-end Z's first (much like what happened at Sony with the A9).
I do believe that we'll see sensor changes in the III's. How aggressive those changes are, I can't predict at the moment. Image sensor change is one of the reasons why I wrote "give or take", above. Image sensors are very long lead items in camera designs. I've written about this before, but "sensor lock" often comes at least a year in advance of releasing a model, because so many other things flow from that. You also can't just "go back to the fab" and run another quick test with a fix or change that you decide you need. That's not only costly, but the fab process itself isn't something that happens in a day or even a week. Much of the time, it's a one-month process from submission to finished chip, even for small-scale testing. So if issues come up in the sensor change you didn't expect, you can find yourself immediately off your desired timeline.
Why do I expect sensor changes?
Well, first there's the on-going current everyone is swimming in: sensors, like most silicon, are like water in a river: they keep moving downstream. (Or maybe it's salmon headed to spawn: they keep moving upstream. For some reason, my metaphor engine doesn't seem to be working well today ;~). But regardless, the point is that we've sat at 24mp for lower-level full frame for going on a decade, and we've got technologies available now where we can move forward. Certainly 30-36mp works for the Z6 III, since 8K video is essentially 33mp...
But more to the point, I've seen Nikon suddenly become highly active again in the sensor patent arena in the past year or so. When I see these patent flurries, it usually means that Nikon is actively working on entirely new image sensors for upcoming cameras, even if the patents are for technology we won't see in the eventual camera. It's clear to me that Nikon's sensor groups are poking around with new ideas, exploring new technologies, and coming up with sensor changes in great quantity at the moment, which means that they're being fully funded to do "new sensor work." That only comes when the group is actively pursuing big sensor changes. In the in-between sensor times, the group is not nearly so active on the R side of R&D, but more on the D side, with patents only slowly trickling out.
Generally, I see Nikon's sensor patents as reflecting things that they've probably now tried prototyping "on fab." We might not see some of those things because the prototypes didn't meet some standard that Nikon required. In some of Nikon's patents, it's clear that new fab production techniques would be necessary, and sometimes when you move from known techniques to new ones, you discover things like yields are too low for the thing you're trying to do.
With that out of the way, I see two things happening with image sensors in the III generation. Let's look at the Z6 in particular: (1) more pixels and sensor bandwidth to support 8K and other options; (2) something to address vertical information discrimination in the focus system. Those two things seem to be at the heart of many of Nikon's patents.
EXPEED7, new image sensor, what else?
This is where things are getting difficult for the camera companies. Feature-wise, our cameras are pretty much stuffed. Yes, I can point to more nuanced changes I'd like to see—and probably will—in the way some features work. Nikon is always looking at the UX, so we often see menu organization changes (several of the things that live on the PHOTO SHOOTING menu could likely be given further categorization: we have "image" settings (e.g. area, quality, size, ISO, Picture Control, white balance) and "function" settings (e.g. bracketing, multiple exposure, HDR, interval, time-lapse, focus-shift shooting). You could sub-group the PHOTO SHOOTING menu some to reduce the scrolling that you need to do to find something. I don't know for sure that Nikon will change that in the III models, but I wouldn't be surprised, as it's the type of thing they catch over time, which is why Nikon menus are relatively easy to understand and use.
To me, the big thing outside of the new internal hardware would be algorithmic and control changes. Auto Area AF works very well now, but there are a lot of things that can be done to make it even better. Some of that would be changes to the way it works (algorithmic) and some would be changes to how users make it work (control). Both things need to be addressed to take the focus system to the next level, and the III models really need to be doing that.
We also have some "easy pickings" available. The EVF can go up-scale (more pixels, faster refresh). The card slots can get more flexible (CFe/SD combo slots). You could put electronic contacts at the hot shoe to support mics and other accessories without needing a cable or sticking a dongle into the side of the camera where it intrudes on your grip.
At this point, you're starting to see a "much better" camera, aren't you?
- More pixels
- Faster operation
- 8K video support
- Better EVF
- Better AF with more control
- More flexible card use
- More structure to menus
- New accessories
Heck, Nikon wouldn't really have to make much, if any, change to the body design (and manufacturing line). We've already got enough controls in the right places (though I'd personally take the Drive button and make it Fn3, and maybe restore the Shooting Method dial under the Mode dial, as that was a more useful control).
Before someone starts emailing me with more radical and extensive changes, remember that the Z6 III and Z7 III are likely going to be part of a bigger line (Z5, Z6 III, Z7 III, Z8, Z9?). These third-generation cameras I'm discussing here would end up more in the lower middle of Nikon's lineup than the top.
As for timing, we're talking about late fall 2022 through fall 2023 as the likely target release date. The exact target would depend upon other Nikon offerings in the works as well as how fast EXPEED7 and a new image sensor get through the development process into actual production.
Also, there's one other element of timing that comes into play: at the point where Nikon stops announcing new DSLR gear—which I'd judge to be 2023—Nikon is going to want to have product on the mirrorless side that's extremely compelling for the installed base to move to. That's where some of the current management debates are coming into play.
The overwhelming portion of the Nikon installed base is DX DSLRs. I'd argue that you need cameras that the D3xxx/D5xxx crowd would likely move to (Z50 II), and that the D7xxx/D500 crowd would want (Z70). I'm not sure that you need lower than the current Z50. Trying to push those DX users to full frame messes up the users' lens sets and thus increases the cost for them to move from DSLR to mirrorless. Increasing the move cost has two implications: (1) lower demand; and (2) competitors' products now can be considered.
For me, the "perfect" set of announcements for one to three years from now when DSLR finally begins to peter out: Z50 II, Z70, some additional Z DX lenses, Z6 III, Z7 III, and an FTZ adapter that supports screw drive lenses. By then we would probably also have the first generation of a Z8 and/or Z9, as well.
Of course, the state of the camera market is such that the old iteration patterns might not get repeated, or might get lengthened. At the moment, though, every indication is that it's business as usual at Nikon, at least as much as it can be with pandemic restrictions, supply chain shortages, and more cost cutting all currently in play.
