The Z9 basically has three key aspects to it that moved it clearly ahead of previous Nikon flagships: no mechanical shutter, blackout free viewfinder, and an advanced subject detect focus system. Today I want to talk about the first of those.
Nikon has a long history of deploying some new technology in their top camera and then migrating that downward in their line. Matrix metering, for example, has been revised several times in technology, each time providing capabilities that were then driven down into the full camera line. In the digital era, for example, the in-viewfinder sensor (and now sensor stream) set off a whole cascade of things that make the Nikon metering far more reliable and steady than just about any other maker (Sony is getting better and close, while Canon is still far off, in my opinion).
Removing the mechanical shutter in the Z9 was one of those flagship deployments that has implications through the line.
And that's the thing that makes me wonder whether Nikon has made a mistake.
The Z9's image sensor has the fastest effective shutter of any currently available sensor at about 1/270 second for a full frame refresh. This stacks up well to the mechanical shutters we had been using, which do the same thing in about 1/250. So far, no problems.
But...
How does Nikon deploy that same technology to the rest of the Z camera lineup? Oh, with new image sensors.
The Z5 comes in at 1/10, the Z7 at 1/16, and the Z6 at 1/22 in terms of a full frame refresh. None of those are really good enough to remove the mechanical shutter. You'd lose flash capabilities, you'd get clear rolling shutter artifacts on motion, and you'd have big problems with frequency-based lighting and displays. The "all-around" nature of these cameras would be lost using those slower refresh rates without a mechanical shutter.
So we get to the gist of today's comment: Nikon needs new image sensors—all across the board—in order to create new models that don't have mechanical shutters. Failure to deploy such sensors would mean future Z-mount cameras would come out with mechanical shutters still, increasing Nikon's cost to produce them, keeping a mechanical device prone to repair, losing blackout-free viewfinders, and not giving those new models a "wow" factor from the flagship.
New image sensors don't just pop out on demand. We see clear change and improvements over time due to very careful and constant iteration, but the key word is "time." I'm actually curious how the Z9 image sensor came to be, as it has clearly different underlying characteristics than the Sony A1 image sensor and any previous Nikon image sensor. Was this to be a Z7 III image sensor that got diverted when Nikon suddenly fast-tracked a flagship camera? I don't know.
What I think I do know is that we're all waiting for a Z5 II, Z6 III, Z7 III, and maybe a Z8, and we're all expecting that major things that showed up with the Z9 to now show up in any new full frame model that appears. Let's look at each of those individually:
- Z5 II — The current Z5 uses a derivative of the D750 image sensor, which is over a decade old in its technologies and performance. Even its phase detect focus ability is basically the over-a-decade-old Nikon 1 tech. One of the reasons to use older technology is to keep costs down, so it's appropriate for an entry model. But it would also be appropriate to remove more costs out of the entry model, and taking out the mechanical shutter would be one good way of doing that (and not adding in a dust curtain, as the Z9 has). Unfortunately, you need a much faster bandwidth than this old sensor has to take out the mechanical shutter, so I'd guess this: we won't see a Z5 II any time soon. Like the D750 it inherits from, I'd bet that the Z5 is a long-game camera where cost is milked from using the old tech for as long as possible.
- Z6 III — This is a tricky product for Nikon, particularly because of the way the Sony iterated the A7 Mark IV and priced it higher. For awhile, the Z6/Z6 II were among the very best 4K video cameras you could get. EXPEED7 should boost that forward (ProRes and better raw), even with the same image sensor. But to make it a 6K video camera and get rid of that mechanical shutter, we need a far faster image sensor. To keep the Z6 III competitive with the Sony model, it needs more pixels. I'm not sure that using the 33mp Sony Exmor sensor that's in the A7 Mark IV would allow dropping the mechanical shutter, though.
- Z7 III — Another tricky product for Nikon. Here's the dilemma in a nutshell: yes, you could drop EXPEED7 and the Z9 image sensor into the Z7 III and get rid of the mechanical shutter. You'd probably raise the cost of making the Z7 line, though, as you're going from an older sensor (D850) to a costly new one (Z9 stacked). I don't think the mechanical shutter costs more than stacked image sensor at this point. But the real problem is not actually technical. If you put the Z9 digital bits into a Z7 body, you still have a Z7 body ;~). One of my real issues at the moment is using a Z6/Z7 body as backup to a Z9: it doesn't work well. Too many things I do with the Z9 can't be done with Mode dial, limited button designs. My sense is that putting the Z9 guts into a Z7 body is a bit like stuffing a V8 with a supercharger into a Honda Civic. Sure, you can do it, but is that realistic?
- Z8 — Which brings us to the most common form of the Z8 that people are clamoring for: a Z9 without the vertical grip. Easy enough to do, and potentially quickly done, but most people would expect such a Z8 to be lower priced than the Z9, and if it is, then the Z9 sales get zapped. You effectively aren't doing much to increase your product line and unit sales, you're simply providing a close variation that diverts sales. The only way I see a Z8 working is if there is a Z9 II right alongside it, and I don't see a Z9 II happening fast.
So now you can understand my headline. Nikon seems to have boxed themselves into a corner. And I haven't even gotten to the DX lineup yet, which given the Canon R7 and the Fujifilm X-H twins is now needing a Z9-type sensor boost, too.
Just prior to the pandemic hitting full force, Nikon's executives were talking about executing faster. So they're clearly aware that there's a lot that needs to be done in the full Z System lineup and that this must be done with speed. Unfortunately, the pandemic, the logistics logjam, and the supply chain shortages all conspired against a fast rollout of new camera products and technologies.
The Z9 held everyone's attention from announcement through to Spring 2022, but now what? The non-Z9-purchasing Nikon base is all waiting to see how that Z9 technology filters down into the lineup they're much more likely to buy. As I've noted, that means a lot of investment in image sensors: and they must be faster or stacked in order to remove the mechanical shutter.
If the next round of full frame cameras doesn't drop the mechanical shutter, that will be a disappointment to many, and it increases the need for other things in those new cameras to produce a "wow" factor.
Of course, sometimes you have to make mistakes to move forward. The Z9 is an incredible camera—though not really the camera for many (most) of you—and needed to happen. But the Z9 probably tipped Nikon's hand in ways that they won't be able to follow through on quickly, giving competitors a chance to match Nikon.
