As I expected, yesterday Nikon announced better than forecast results for the Imaging Group in their fiscal second quarter financial presentation (July-September). And they're now forecasting even higher results for their complete year (ending March 31, 2023).
I keep get asking whether Nikon will introduce a new camera soon. My response lately has been that I don't expect a new camera announcement until CP+ in 2023, which is just before the end of Nikon's fiscal year. My response changed about a month ago when I got wind of the first half financial results coupled with some brief comments about supply chain. I believe Nikon isn't going to rush a new camera and push the supply chain when they are doing better than they expected. Indeed, I think they're now setting themselves up for a really strong next fiscal year.
To put numbers on it, Nikon had previously forecast 215b yen in revenue for the fiscal year. That's now been increased to 230b yen. They also forecast 27b yen in profit for the fiscal year. That, too, has increased, now to 33b yen. (Note that those forecasts were still actively promoted up to about six weeks ago.) What hasn't changed is the number of interchangeable lens cameras Nikon predicts they'll make (700k). So these increases are coming from selling more Z6/Z7/Z9/D850/D6 type of product and less Zfc/Z30/Z50/Z5/Dxxx types. Average selling price for Nikon is going up, and the weaker yen has also had an effect, particularly since Nikon has pushed a lot of inventory into the US, where the dollar is strong.
That 700k units puts Nikon at 13% market share for ILC, which should continue to make it clear they're not pursuing a market share strategy. We're getting higher-end products as they become comfortable that they're ready. Simple as that. I don't expect a Christmas camera surprise (though that doesn't rule out one of the Road Map lenses suddenly popping up).
