Apparently everyone selling expensive cameras needs to claim bragging rights. Fortunately, the NPD Group is there to help (in the US). The good thing about NPD Group data is this: it's based on cash register receipts (real sales to users), and NPD's sources cover the US market without gaps (unlike the Japanese market BCN data, which leaves out significant sales sources). So NPD data tends to accurately describe what people are buying in the US.
NikonUSA put out a press release last week that says "that the Nikon Z9 accounted for 57% of the sales of mirrorless full frame cameras with an average selling price above US$5000 from January 1st through March 31st, 2022." Based on NPD data.
Let's see, that's four dependencies (mirrorless, full frame, price, date). That's not a record, as both Canon and Sony have used NPD Group data in similar ways with press releases that have four or five dependencies embedded in their claims. These type of press release claims tend to be tightly focused so that the company in question can claim "a win." It's Marketing 101: hot products sell better (sales beget more sales).
I'm not sure we needed a press release to know that the Z9 sold well, and given that the Z9 remains out of stock and back-ordered, I'm not sure how trumpeting the win begets more sales. Heck, NikonUSA hasn't yet cleared some backorders that date back into November, 2021. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of NikonUSA's press release later this summer, lengthening the claim to six months.
But what's that mean in units? Not as many as you'd think. I'm guessing that Nikon hit ~20k (+/-3k) units worldwide through March 31st. The US has gotten a bigger share of those units than would be expected (I suspect that the China COVID issues and subsequent economic slowdown may have shifted some units from that market).
I'm estimating it's going to take until at least July before a Z9 is readily available off the shelf somewhere in the US should you suddenly decide you want one.
My past advice still applies: if you want a Z9:
- If you're an NPS member, put in a Priority Purchase through with NikonUSA and your dealer of choice.
- If you're not NPS, find a reputable, local authorized Nikon dealer and get on their wait list. Don't use the big online retailers (Adorama, Amazon, B&H, etc.), as they are not getting all the units they've ordered. NikonUSA still prioritizes one-to-a-dealer first and foremost, so before the big online vendors get a second unit, all the local dealers are getting one. The actual allocation method NikonUSA uses is complex—and a dealer on credit hold won't get any—but it favors the local dealers.
