The latest rumor going round is that Nikon will introduce a new camera in August (specifically on August 24th), and that this will be a Z8. This rumor and its relatives also says that the Z8 will be basically a Z9 without the vertical grip, without 8K 60P, but with a new N-Log, among other details.
Okay, first things first: I'm highly confident that Nikon will announce something in the second half of August. However, it’s not likely a camera, as I’m not aware of one that’s entered the necessary regulatory approval processes that would match expectations, and I haven’t heard of any changes to the production line in Thailand. However, I have been hearing that those last two weeks of the month have been a target for a release for most of this year. My expectation would be a lens or two, not a camera. My best sources have always said "lens announcement in late August if production goals met, soon after if not.”
As to the Z8 idea, sure, I'd love a Z9 without the vertical grip appendage. However, given the battery consumption issues, it would need to lose the GPS, lose the LAN, lose some of the video capability, and maybe lose some of the extended EVF benefits (over the Z6/Z7). Otherwise, it would need a new, higher capacity battery, and I don't really want YAB (yet another battery).
Here's my real problem with the rumor as it stands: Nikon does not need another 45mp camera. Nikon instead needs a higher pixel count camera that's professional. A pro 61/80/100mp Z8 without a grip would make much more sense alongside the pro 45mp Z9, and that would restore the x/h model dyad (in DSLRs that's currently 45mp D850 [x], 20mp D6 [h]). It doesn't seem to make sense to make a more prosumer Z7 III as 61/80/100mp if a pro D8 is 45mp.
That said, Nikon does what Nikon wants to do, and that's not always easily predictable.
However, I’m worried about all these constant Z8 rumors. My expectations are that a Z6 III is next in line for FX camera announcements. Moreover, that's actually Nikon’s biggest need in FX at the moment given that Sony made an impressive update to their A7 model in the Mark IV.
In terms of best-to-worst, here’s how Nikon stacks up vis-a-vis the competitors:
- Better Than. A Nikon model is better than a competitor’s model. At present, this only happens at the Z5 level (a Z5 is arguably better than a Canon RP or a Sony A7 Mark II).
- Equal To. A Nikon model basically matches a competitor’s model. The Z9 manages to do this (versus the Sony A1). Some of you may try to point to something the Z9 does a little better (raw 8K video, for instance), but I can point to something the A1 does better (saving/switching user configurations). In terms of image quality and most base capabilities of the cameras, I wouldn’t necessarily favor one over the other.
- Behind. A Nikon model has not yet matched or exceeded a competitor’s model. This is the case for the Z6 II (now versus A7 Mark IV) and some would say Z7 II (versus A7R Mark IV).
Since the game of new cameras is basically a game of leap frog, you want to take your Behind gear and jump it to Better Than every chance you get. Equal To is a fallback against a competitor who’s jumping their frog constantly.
The whole world knows that the US$2000-2500 full frame bodies iterate on 24-month intervals, give or take a critical path improvement or delay. The Z6 III would be expected late this year under that scenario, and it’s the most important model that needs to jump.
But the Nikon world—or is it just the fan boys stirring the pot?—seems to be talking about a Z8 as necessary, and constantly. Against what competitor? I suppose the Canon R5, but is Nikon losing sales to the R5? I can’t measure that.
What’s happening with all these rumors about a Z8 appearing soon—including the main rumor site writing counter articles poo-pooing those rumors (and now me)—is that what we have happening in all these Z8 rumors has become a faux marketing campaign. The noise is so loud that if a Z8 doesn’t appear on August 24th, then the negative “Nikon is screwing up” responses will start up to replace the rumor. Remember, marketing sets expectations, so when the expectations of all this faux marketing aren’t met, a lot of folk will swing the opposite direction, believing that Nikon missed a turn somehow.
So let me write this clearly: I get no sense that Nikon has missed any turns. You see this most clearly with lenses, where Nikon has more control over parts supply. No missed turns there. Everything has been filling a real hole or need, and doing so at levels we haven’t seen before from the company. Nikkor has got its juju back, and then some (more lens reviews coming soon that will affirm that).
I do know that the groups within Nikon working on cameras are frustrated. They wanted to move their schedules forward, not backward. Unfortunately, if a new part is involved they have to wait for it; and if an old part is involved, they have to lower production of current models to free up those critical parts. Both are problems that just stall releases. (Nikon’s not the only one having this problem, but when you’re trying to play leap frog it’s like your webbed feet have gotten so sticky that they refuse to let go of the ground you’re on.)
My direct worry is this: no Z8 appearing in the next month makes all the Z buzz go negative, and thus increases the hurdle that Nikon marketing has to get over with whatever does come next. “Public sentiment” is and isn’t a thing. It isn’t a thing in the sense that it is often formed and manipulated by money, media, fan boys, anarchists, and others. Unfortunately, the manipulation actually works, so much so that public sentiment becomes a friction against which reality has to fight. Sometimes the real products manage to do so successfully, sometimes they don’t.
Bottom line: I’m not expecting a Z8 any time soon, let alone sure what one would be like in Nikon’s top-down management mind. So I won’t be at all disappointed if one doesn’t show up. Will I be the only one thinking that? I hope not.
