After the Olympics, the next biggest regular event that occupies the camera companies' focus is probably the FIFA World Cup. The length of that soccer playoff, the number of global teams that compete, and most importantly the number of photographers who are on the scene recording things make it a great place to introduce new pro products.
As I write this, we're 22 days away from the start of the 2022 World Cup (in Qatar). The question is this: will Nikon launch something in time for the World Cup?
My guess would be yes. Soccer is notorious for demanding a longer, fast lens. I think it highly likely we'll see either a development or full announcement of the 600mm f/4 TC VR S lens. Why a development announcement when the lens is already on the Road Map? Because Nikon might dedicate an initial production run of 600mm lenses to Nikon Professional Services for use in Qatar. The 600mm would be a low production volume lens, and the first batch might be pretty much taken up with supporting NPS events (e.g. Australian Open in January, Super Bowl and Six Nations Rugby in February).
Given the overwhelming demand for the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S and 800mm f/6.3 PF VR S, two other low volume Z exotics, I suspect that Nikon will want to build out 600's for a bit longer before officially announcing them. But then again, they might have been already doing so. Thus, I can't tell you whether to expect a development or official announcement, but it certainly feels like this lens is next and should show up in Qatar. I note that others think the same. As I was writing this, NikonRumors also published such a prediction.
