Really? "The Z9 Will Be a Sales Flop"?
I'm not even going to link to the click bait article that claims this; it's not worth your time to read. When the article claims that the D1 was a hit (and the Z9 is going to be flop), I think you have all the data you need to dismiss it. (The D1 sold in modest quantities and had clear UX issues. It was a statement camera, but not a sales hit. The D1h and D1x "fixed" that. I don't think there's anything other some firmware updates that need to be fixed in the Z9.)
The same article goes on to claim that the D4 and D800 were the "high point" for Nikon, but that's not exactly what the data shows. D4 sales were considerably less than D3 sales, though the D800 ultimately ended up selling more than the D700.
No doubt flagship cameras sell in lower volume than consumer cameras, but Nikon has a long history of "resets," and the Z9 is another reset. And already a successful one, at that. It's difficult to say something is a flop when it appears to have sold more than US$50m worth on day one of availability, with hundreds of millions of dollars of orders still outstanding. I doubt there's anyone in Tokyo thinking the Z9 is a flop. Certainly not at Nikon headquarters, and I'm pretty sure not at Canon or Sony headquarters, either.
I expect Nikon Imaging to report better than estimated results for the quarter that's about to end. And profitable results, at that.
The real question that needs to be answered isn't whether the Z9 will be a success, but how fast will Nikon push stacked image sensors and EXPEED7 into the rest of the lineup? Because that's the way they'll thrive on this nth reset of their camera lineup.
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It's ironic. About fifteen years ago I started covering the business side of cameras, and I wrote quite a few articles pointing out an upcoming "volume change" that was going to change the business. After that change happened, I noticed more and more sites trying to provide the same sort of analysis I had been, but not understanding what a volume change really meant. Tracking volume for a business only is instructional when there's a strong change in volume occurring. I.e. rapid expansion, a flip from expansion to mature or decline, or a strong decline. And even then you have to account for change in strategy. The Japanese are particularly good at changing strategies based upon market conditions.
Anyone trying to assess where Nikon Imaging is today and how successful they are or will be shouldn't be spending much time looking at volume. Nikon made the choice to get out of the chasing volume business and rebuilt the business on a different strategic model. So, to all those sites that keep picking up (too late) on things I write about: where's you article on the "new Nikon model" and how successful they are at that? Right. Isn't very click-baity, is it?
