The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) hits Las Vegas on January 5th, 2023, and Nikon has a very well-positioned and biggish booth booked (#17914, right off the main entry corridor in the Central Hall).
Let’s see…will they introduce steppers? No.
Will they introduce X-ray CT, industrial microscopy, 3D laser scanners, or any of their new manufacturing solutions? No.
Will they introduce a new Bioimaging Lab? No.
None of those things are consumer electronics. In fact, the only group within Nikon that makes anything you could call consumer electronics these days is…wait for it…the Imaging Group, which makes…wait for it some more…cameras and lenses.
Oh, I suppose the Roberts robots could show up again, as its a pretty gee-whiz thing to have at a trade show. But I’d say that the reason to drop millions of dollars on a CES presence is going to be right smack in the Z world you like to read about.
Oh my.
Instead of predicting what Nikon will introduce—I do have some knowledge at this point what’s coming next from Nikon Imaging—I’m going to instead propose a way to evaluate whether Nikon’s CES presence was worth all the money they paid for it.
CES is a Failure if…
…all we get is a couple of new Nikkor Z lenses. Even if they’re the 85mm f/1.2 S and 200-600mm f/4.5-6.3 VR you’ve all been waiting for.
Why would I construe this as a failure? (1) We already know these products are coming; (2) one of them is long overdue; and (3) you don’t use the most expensive version of “Vegas" to just launch new lenses.
Bonus points if any current camera gets a significant firmware update (meaning clearly better performance and/or added features).
CES is Probably Worthwhile if…
…we get a new, useful, interesting camera. I suppose I’d put a Z70, Z6 III, or Z7 III in that category. The latter two are overdue, the former much wanted. All three of these cameras would get interest from the tech-savvy-but-non-photographic press that maxes out their corporate travel accounts the first week of the year to attend CES. The old-school mainstream media (think Wall Street Journal, USA Today, CNN, etc.) would probably give such products a dose of 15-minutes-of-near-fame, too.
Minor bonus points if any introduced camera has some “new” tech thing about it that rises above the “Company X announces an update to Y” roar that makes it hard to hear anything in the exhibit halls, or if those lenses I mentioned above come along for the ride.
CES is a Resounding Success if…
…it’s a surprise. Say a new Z8 with a new Speedlight. With the new lenses. With no mechanical shutter. With some new software updates (note that NX Mobile Air just got a significant one). The more “newness” there is to talk about, the more the success will make noise that is heard round the world.
Minor bonus points for performance superlatives, such as 10K raw video or 60 fps raw stills. Deductions for leaving out something, such as pixel-shift capture or higher resolution EVFs.
Okay, there you have it: I’ve just given you a way to evaluate how Nikon does on January 5th (or maybe 4th, since you usually want to announce prior to the actual trade show starting). So get out your judging hats and grading cards. Sharpen a couple of pencils. Set your Internet connection to High and your fora discussion wit to Stun. The rest of you might want to get some popcorn popping and make sure your favorite chair has had all the Christmas wrapping paper that piled up on it removed.
