I continue to get asked about Z9 supply and delivery. So I have two answers for you:
- If you’re NPS and order through the NPS Priority Purchase program, you’ll get your Z9 in the next shipment, which is typically happening every two to four weeks.
- The rest of you will get your Z9 within three months*.
* Oh, you noticed the asterisk, did you? Yes, this is a crude estimate. In my informal polling I’m sensing that about half the Z9 demand has been filled at this point. It took Nikon three months to get to this point, so it’ll probably take another three months to fill the remaining current demand. (This isn’t my first rodeo in trying to predict supply equaling demand for new Nikon cameras.)
One problem, of course, is that as more and more reviews appear that are highly positive about the Z9, the demand probably ratchets up a bit. As word of mouth continues to spread among the Nikon faithful, the demand ratchets up some more.
Thus, my advice: if you want a Z9 by summer, get in a queue now. It’s unlikely that demand is going to go down for the Z9 any time soon, and it’s more likely that it will go up. I don’t believe Nikon has much flexibility in increasing supply at this point, even though they have the manufacturing plant capacity to do so. Parts is parts, and you need them coming in one end of the factory to send finished product out the other.
That said, those on the fence should really wait for my review, which isn’t too far away now. While I’ll recommend the Z9, in several months of use and in putting together my book I’ve found a lot of small things that need addressing by Nikon. One can hope for a firmware update that will deal with some of these things, but others are more inherent in the design.
Finally, one additional comment. As with any new camera with a new, “better” autofocusing system, the customer belief—particularly given Nikon’s highly visible and effective marketing for a change—is that you just put the new camera in autofocus and photograph, and all your images will be perfectly focused. That wasn’t true of the Nikon D6, it wasn’t true of a Sony A9 or A1, it wasn’t true of any Canon 1DX or R, it hasn’t been true of any camera ever. It’s not true of a Z9.
That’s not to say that these cameras don’t focus well. All the aforementioned cameras are excellent in their autofocus capability, but they all need someone directing them to the best possible results.
What’s happened is something akin to what happened with the early DSLR adoption. Consumers who struggled with a problem found it (mostly) solved for them with the new technology. With the transition from film to digital, the big problem being solved was exposure. Not that the film SLRs were problematic at exposure; they weren’t. But the amateur or casual, occasional photographer wasn’t able to get timely feedback on what a change in setting produced. From whence we got bracketing, in hopes that solved the problem.
The biggest problem many are still having is focus. Thus, the promise of the Super Intelligent I Recognize Anything focus systems is something they resonate with. And indeed, if you were having big problems achieving accurate focus, with the auto subject detection cameras you’ll have far, far fewer issues than you did. Because those folk see such improved results from their DSLRs, they have started a myth that mirrorless cameras focus far better than anything else, and that perfect focus is a standard now.
I’ve looked at a ton of photos by those who claimed perfect focus from a recent model, including the Z9. No, it’s just better focus than they would have achieved before. Which explains their enthusiasm and the viral hype they generate. However, I’ll say this emphatically: to get the best and closest to perfect results out of a Z9 (or any of those other cameras) you still need to study and master the focus system. The Z9 is complex enough that I’m not 100% sure I’ve done that myself yet, though since picking up the camera in late November, I’ve come a long way from where I was with the focus system. The way I have my Z9 configured today is different than it was in Africa in December.
Those of you who read my sites regularly know that I’ve long been an advocate of “learn your gear; practice with your gear; experiment with your gear.” The Z9 is not a camera that changes my mind on that.
