We're now over four years into the Z System (and this Web site, believe it or not). You'd think that four years worth of camera effort would tell us more about who Nikon thinks their customer is.
Instead, I have this (admittedly snide) sense that Nikon doesn't really know, or doesn't know how to target them.
This started with the original Z6 and Z7. At casual first glance, this appeared to be a D750 and D850 in mirrorless cladding. But as I've said from day one, the Z7 falls below the D850 in terms of performance, features, and customization, while the Z6 is also something quite different than a D750. The combination was essentially "starting in the middle" of the full frame DSLR line.
My problem is that much of that middle hasn't really progressed much in four years. The Z7 II is still clearly below a D850. The Z6 II has progressed, but mostly as a video camera, and the D780 DSLR eventually simply took on all that goodness, too, confusing the buyer at that level.
Let's get into the Wayback Machine and look at Nikon's strengths in the past:
- Top pro pairings — F4/N90s, F5/F100, D1h/D1x, D2h/D2x, D3/D3x, D4/D800, and D5/D850. Note that this trend goes way back into the film SLR era, but hasn't yet been repeated in the Z era. Pros might not have upgraded at every iteration, but virtually all of them have followed some progression in these models.
- Remarkably solid enthusiast camera(s) — N70, N80, D100, D200, D300, D500, D600, D610, D700, D750, D780. Again, a trend that reaches deep back into the film SLR era. One can certainly say that the Z6/Z6 II is that type of camera in the Z era. The Z5 and Z7/Z7 II also fit the category. As with the pro cameras, the serious enthusiasts were reliable upgraders, though not always on every generation. Nikon's long skips between some of the updates (D300 to D500, D750 to D780) lost a number of those customers to competitors (sampling, leaking).
- Miscellaneous consumer products that wandered all across the board seeking traction — In the DSLR era, we got D40's, D50's, D60's, D3xxx's, and D5xxx's. Throw in the Nikon 1's, and even some of the Coolpix (P models). These all came and went while making random and mild iterations that often failed to inspire and rarely provoked customers to update. Those that did update tending to swim upstream to the enthusiast or pro cameras.
One would conclude from the above that Nikon needs a pro Z pair, plus one or two really solid enthusiast cameras to satisfy their recent serious customers.
But...
- We don't have a pro pairing. We have a Z9, which is a fine pro camera that felt a little rushed in execution, but is still arguably one of the two best mirrorless cameras you can buy. So we have one of the two needed. Moreover, I'm seeing more and more people saying they don't want the Z9 because of size. They want the camera, but they don't want the built-in grip. In the early DSLR era we would have gotten a Z9 and Z9x (speed and pixel variations). In the late DSLR era Nikon split the pro cameras into built-in grip and optional grip, but still stuck with speed and pixel variations. One would conclude from this that to keep the current customer happy Nikon needs a Z8 that's a pixels camera without a built-in grip (67mp+).
- The solid enthusiast cameras need work. This part of the Z lineup currently feels like a D600, D780, D800. In other words, the middle is fine, but the outer edges of the full frame versions feel older. The Z5/Z6/Z7 models in this category also use the consumer U# solution for configuration, not banks. They're also missing a wide array of button customizations that enthusiasts would want. The Z6/Z7 models are also really 5.5 fps cameras, too, which is sluggish in the enthusiast's world view these days. Conspicuously and totally missing is any serious DX camera (e.g. Z70 or Z90, or both). One would think that Nikon could recognize that the "7" line in DX DSLRs was absolutely how they built such a strong DSLR following. D70, D80, D90, D7000, D7100, D7200, D7500. And many of those folk were the ones that gravitated later to the full frame cameras. So where's the Z70?
- Consumer product is mostly missing. Basically DX has turned into a trio of entry cameras using the same guts but targeting slightly different customers via their externals. Casual (Z50), Style-slavish (Zfc), and Vlogger (Z30). Each of these models had a brief burst of selling energy, but I'll bet that the overall Z DX unit volume has stayed relatively flat overall.
Nikon's priorities really need to follow that order: pro, enthusiast, and only after that consumer.
Why? Because Nikon's customer already owns a Nikon, and the large majority of them still own a DSLR. It's absolutely imperative that Nikon keep the pro customer. D3, D4, D5, and D6 owners need to become Z9 and Z9 II owners. D800, D810, and D850 owners need to become Z8 owners.
Next, the enthusiasts need more attention. The only area where I think Nikon has fully served here is the D600 to D750 crowd. The Z5 is better than a D600, so no problems there. The Z6 II is arguably better than a D750, and the upcoming Z6 III should push that forward, so also no problems (other than poor marketing). Unfortunately, the DX DSLR enthusiast who lived in the "7" line doesn't have anywhere to go, nor does the D300 or D500 owner. Nikon has let many of those become Fujifilm and Sony customers due to neglect. This must stop. Nikon needs to make those remaining DX DSLR owners buy Z70 and Z90 cameras, or make a compelling case for them to become a Z6 III owner.
I would tend to argue that spending any time with true consumer products is barking at the wrong customer for Nikon. Nikon is no longer #2 in market share, and professes not to have any interest in attempting to regain that title. They're in danger of becoming #4 due to loss of the pro and enthusiast customers they already had, so that's where they need to focus their energy.
The Z5, Z6 III, and Z9 are clearly products that work towards that. Two of these exist, and the other is expected soon. No real problems there, particularly if the Z6 III targets some of the remaining needs for that customer level.
The Z8, Z70, and Z90 do not exist, and there's no clear evidence that they're coming any time soon. This is Nikon's biggest customer loss potential: not filling these holes quickly simply keeps the bleeding off of previous customers continuing, and lets the Nikon faithful continue to shout that Nikon isn't paying attention to them. That's a friction against the things that Nikon is doing right.
If Nikon should be a six cylinder pro/enthusiast engine, it's firing on three cylinders right now. That's not good enough to retain a customer base that Nikon spent decades accumulating. Getting the other three cylinders working is absolutely necessary to run efficiently and achieve Nikon's modest longer-term goals.
Which leaves me with the Z7 III. I'm not sure what that product should be or who it would really be for. A high pixels enthusiast camera that works just fine is already available: Z7 II. I see people waiting for a Z7 III who are really waiting for a Z8. A Z6 eventually has to gain pixels, so the Z7 sits in a middle ground that's not solid. Muddy, at best.
And as much as I like the Z50, I'd abandon it for a Z70 in a second. As would most of the Z50 users. So it, too, is on ground that's not solid.
So it's time to go back to a theme I've been concentrating on for awhile now: image sensors. If the Nikon Z System is basically a six-cylinder pro/enthusiast engine, it's not going to be driven by six different image sensors. Nikon's long history tells us that they a sensor consolidator, not a sensor proliferator. If you buy into that as I do, you see why Nikon is firing on only three cylinders: they're running on old image sensors that they haven't reconciled yet.
So here's my take on that:
- Sensor #1: DX 26mp BSI, perhaps with a stacked variant. Powers Z50 II, Z70, Z90.
- Sensor #2: FX 24mp BSI, perhaps with a stacked variant: Powers Z5 II, Z6 III.
- Sensor #3: FX 45mp BSI stacked, with an unstacked variant?: Powers Z9, perhaps could be used in a Z7 III.
- Sensor #4: FX 67mp BSI: Powers Z8.
Even that's problematic. Nikon would really like to get to three image sensors, I believe, because you're paying more for the most costly part of a camera if you slip in volume by spreading across too many chips. And Sensor #2 really needs to be 33mp to stay even with Sony. But I don't think Nikon can run a full line of products that appeal to its already existing customers without running at least four image sensors, thus my choices above.
Implications:
- DX needs a lot of attention, and needs to move considerably forward in capability to be viable.
- Staying at 24mp with the Z5/Z6 means more attention needs to be given to features, usability, performance.
- The fourth sensor has to go into a camera that has enough appeal/price to justify it existing (e.g. Z8).
Circling back to the headline question: Nikon's customer is their existing, non-consumer, installed base. The D70/7###, D###, and D# customers, basically. Nikon's not yet built a full Z System lineup that can move all of those customers from DSLR to mirrorless. That should be Job One, and an urgent job, at all.
