While everyone was hoping for more cameras and lenses announced by Nikon this year, what we got was actually pretty strong in a different respect. The one new offering, the Z30, is a great little vlogging camera. Meanwhile virtually all the existing cameras got firmware updates adding bits and pieces. Some of these updates—the Z9 in particular—were very significant. We also got six of the eight expected lenses, and I wouldn't be surprised if Nikon tried to sneak one more lens into 2022 with a late announcement.
Everyone is asking me the same question, though: is it okay to buy the X model camera, and is an X II/III model camera about to appear?
The answer to that compound question is yes and no, respectively.
First, note that Nikon did not make any changes to their fiscal year estimates for shipments, but increased their predicted revenue and profit numbers. The implication there is that heavy holiday discounting is not highly likely, and there's no new camera appearing in this buying period. Nikon's holding pat on the cards they've been dealt by the supply chain constraints.
I expect 2023 to be a busy year for Nikon, though I think it's likely to get off to a slowish start, even with the CP+ trade show in Japan in February. There's speculation that Nikon might make a development announcement well before CP+ (to stay clear of all the CP+ related announcements, of which I believe there will be many, including Nikon lens announcements). But I don't see Nikon shipping new cameras and lenses until their next fiscal year starts in April, 2023. In other words, we're probably six months out from significant model changes/additions being in a store where you can buy them. That's a lot of photographic time, if you're truly active photographically. Moreover, if the past is any indication, any strong new camera is going to be a sell-out day one, and may not be "in stock" until at least the end of summer, 2023.
So generally my holiday buying advice is this: don't be afraid of the current models, they're all good for what they purport to be. Particularly:
- Zfc/Z50 — Are two ways of looking at the same basic entry camera. If you are/were in the D3xxx/D5xxx/Rebel/Kiss crowd, these are very competent cameras. My only suggestion would be to wait to see if there's any special Black Friday/Cyber Monday pricing. Inventory of these models is in stores in quantity, the dollar/yen relationship favors the dollar, so this is one of the models NikonUSA has some ability to push. The Z50 is my daily driver, the camera I carry pretty much everywhere. The 16-50mm kit lens is about the best kit lens ever, and makes the combo very small for carrying. Think jacket pocket. You will need to learn how to master its simplified focus system, though.
- Z6 II — Yes, Canon just announced the R6 Mark II and Sony has a fresh A7 Mark IV. Did those really pass the Z6 II? Maybe on some subject recognition capabilities on the Canon and a few pixels on the Sony, but not really on anything a serious photographer would get excited about. The Z6 II is a strongly capable camera—as I proved recently using it to photograph college football—you just need to spend time learning its nuances. It's also a truly strong 4K video camera, as well.
- Z7/Z7 II — You'll note I grouped these together. Realistically, if you're opting for pixels for landscape, night, architecture, travel, and a number of other photo disciplines, you don't need the II model, so consider looking for Z7 bargains on closeout.
- Z9 — Now in stock in most places, this is a powerhouse camera that has not disappointed me. Be forewarned that there's a LOT to learn to use it effectively, and the 3.0 firmware release now adds many more capabilities and complications to that. Yes, it's US$5500. Yes, it's a bigger, heavier body (though smaller than a D850 with the vertical grip option). Yes, there's likely to eventually be some trimmed down form of this camera, possibly even in mid-2023. But it's also built like a brick, is ultra-controllable, and has all kinds of hidden goodies that are useful (tracking GPS, for instance, which I wouldn't expect in any smaller version). The Z9 is the camera in my work bag, and again, it's never disappointed me.
Here in the US, the real discounts are likely to mostly appear on the Z5 body and lenses that are commonly in stock. The Z5 is using older parts in new ways, and is quite capable, though not a speed-oriented camera in any way. As an entry full frame camera, nothing matches it from anyone else. The Canon RP is not even close, and the older Sony A7 generations that Sony uses as their entry models also aren't as good. Think D610, only better and without the shutter issues. The Z5 is the holiday bargain at NikonUSA when it's at the US$1000-1100 body cost.
Lenses in and out of stock aren't likely to have significant discounts, though this may change if Nikon has managed to ramp up production on lenses such as the 100-400mm f/4.5-5.6 VR S.
For gear that's always in stock, I'd say wait and see if there are any last minute bargains offered. I already mentioned Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but NikonUSA has also in the past sometimes put in a mid-December sale, too. I generally don't post stories about sales, though I sometimes do with longer-term discounting. My site isn't dependent upon pushing gear and collecting commissions, so I don't push. The only reason I do these advice articles is to cut down on open-ended emails asking about what's likely to happen. You can keep track of current body prices in the ad at the bottom of the page, which is kept current (ad rotates between models, or use < and > buttons to scroll).
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