I’m hearing nothing that indicates that a Z6/Z7 III model will happen in 2023. Technically, it should have happened in late 2022.
As I’ve noted before, I believe that Nikon is hung up on available sensor decisions at the moment. It’s as if they got to a fork in the road but virtually all of the available choices had an “under construction” sign stopping them from entering.
The one path that was available was this: put the EXPEED7 chip in the existing bodies. Such an update would have likely provided:
- A version of the new AF system, but without blackout free viewfinder.
- HEIF, High Efficiency raw files.
- Internal 10-bit video recording (possibly ProRes and raw, as well).
- Expansion of the customizable controls.
- Realignment of the menu system (PHOTO first, new NETWORK menu)
- Faster CFe slot.
Would that have been enough in October 2022 to justify a new camera set? Would it still have left room for 2024 updates that made sense?
I believe it would have, in both cases.
The marketing frictions that Nikon is currently working against (e.g. the Sony A7 Mark IV versus the Z6 II) would have been considerably moderated by III models as I’ve just suggested, particularly if Nikon kept the price under Sony’s big bump. Further, Nikon is still trying to move DSLR owners to mirrorless, and without the new AF system and subject detection, that is just difficult when it has a US$4000 entry point.
In terms of 2024 versions of the Z6/Z7 cameras, the 2022 update I outline above still leaves a simple path for the future, too: new image sensors (e.g. 33mp and 61mp+, and preferably fast enough to remove the mechanical shutter and provide blackout free, or near blackout free, viewfinder; heck, maybe upgrade the viewfinder). Add new body construction to make them lighter (ala the Z8’s hybrid chassis), and perhaps a fully articulating LCD for the Z6 IV and a multi-tilting one for the Z7 IV.
One thing that’s not happening at the moment in the Z lineup that was a staple of the Nikon DSLR lineup is the impression of constant improvement on a regular basis. A lot of original Z6 and especially Z7 owners felt like the II models were just an incremental step (they were), but that’s now an incremental step that appears to have halted for unknown reasons. The “buy every second generation” thing that I recommended in the DSLR era is broken now, as there’s only been one incremental step, and another such step appears to be far off.
Nikon’s lack of action in the middle of the lineup—no Z70/Z90, no Z5 update, minor Z6/Z7 updates—is causing worry among the Nikon faithful. Nikon’s current marketing is “buy a triplet (DX) or buy a twin (pro FX).” Yet most of the buying really should be in the middle area that is not getting timely introductions and updates.
