I actually wrote last week’s “Why I Love the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S” article more than a month before I posted it. I held off on publishing it because I suspected that it would trigger even more new orders for a lens that has been out of stock since its announcement. Indeed, that has happened. The current situation at most major market stores is that there is a wait list of a dozen to two dozen customers, and those lists just got a bit deeper.
So first things first: the 400mm f/4.5 VR S is in stock, reasonably priced, and you can duplicate the thing that I wrote about in the article by using external teleconverters. Not as convenient, more than a stop slower, but very close in image quality. Most of those needing a great 400mm prime should be going this route. Indeed, on my next Africa safari, I’m trying to go as light as possible, so will possibly be doing that myself (I might also have a 180-600mm to test by then, too).
This morning I heard a story on NPR (National Public Radio) that centered around broken economics for a particular service. I immediately recognized the business school construct: any wait list means that you charged too little for the product.
In tech, I’d phrase that somewhat differently: any ongoing wait list suggests that you charged too little for the product. It’s near impossible to build and ship a new technology that will be in strong demand and meet orders with the initial production run. You need a few months to get new products fully matching demand with most high tech gear. In a lot of tech, it’s really just getting adequate chip supply and optimizing manufacturing that holds you back initially. Once you’ve got the product fully in production, you can generally build to demand.
However, Nikon is in a difficult place with the big exotics (and even phase fresnel [PF] lenses): for a number of reasons. Nikon tends to start up exotic lens production for two months or so prior to announcement, but that’s still only 400-600 lenses. But (1) the parts supply—specifically large, specialized lens elements—is considerably constrained and difficult to ramp up. My understanding is that Nikon has only one large element PF polishing machine in operation, and that the really large fluorite elements also have a supply limitation. Top end glass in general has a year-long gestation from pour to final polish, and not all pours net the huge sections of glass needed for the big elements as easily as they do for smaller ones. Someone once told me that element size was almost an exponential constriction in supply. Add in (2) hand assembly and alignment to insure highest quality, and you have a very non-modern, tough-to-scale manufacturing problem on your hands.
Thus Nikon probably knew that they were only going to produce 200-300 of the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S lenses a month from the get go (and that they also had to make 600mm f/4 TC VR S lenses in similar quantities). They’ve had enough experience with F-mount exotics to know what their real capacity here is. The difference is that Nikon has been producing a 400mm f/2.8 lens in the F-mount since 1985. Back in 1985 demand was far lower and supply appeared more quickly because of that. Since then we’ve had at least five iterations of that 400mm f/2.8, each of which added something, but not necessarily something that made the previous version “obsolete.” Thus, we’d see short wait lists at each introduction that tended to clear in a couple of months, even as demand slowed picked up from the old film levels to the heightened DSLR ones. Many folk just used the 400mm f/2.8 they already had; others bought a used one. For instance, I never bought the 400mm f/2.8E FL ED VR, because my 400mm f/2.8G was perfectly fine (though heavier).
Getting rid of the FTZ adapter, dropping significant size and weight, and adding a built-in teleconverter was a huge change for F-mount 400mm users who moved to the Z System. One that prompted all of us who had those F-mount versions to take a really close look at the Z-mount version. And the more we looked, the more we loved what we saw. One result of that is that F-mount versions have tanked in value to the point where you can get them used in excellent shape for ridiculously low prices. That very well may be a solution for some of you to get a top-level 400mm on your Z camera.
Which brings me to something I wrote first in a post on dpreview: In situations where there are long back-order lists as we have with the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S, you need a strong relationship with a brick and mortar dealer who’s got NPD (Nikon Professional Dealer) status, or you need to be NPS (Nikon Professional Services). NPS Priority Purchase is a “cut in line” function here in the US. I’d judge that any new NPS order today (such orders are open again) with an NPD dealer is going to fill in a month or two. Unfortunately, that pushes the non-NPS wait list back.
For non-NPS orders, the way NikonUSA allocates product to dealers has a ton of nuance to it, and this sometimes results in “an extra” lens showing up to a standing order from an NPD dealer. In the big markets, that lens is probably already spoken for, but in some smaller markets, it might not be. Moreover, a dealer that’s had a strong buying relationship from you in the past will tend to prioritize you over someone they’ve never met and who made an Internet or phone wait list sign up with no cash commitment. That said, there aren’t a lot of “extra lenses” showing up each month in the US, plus the big wait lists everywhere mean non-NPS customers will still be waiting for some time, even when they have that strong relationship with their local store.
The Z8 and the Z9 firmware updates haven’t helped matters. I’m seeing most diehard DSLR sports and wildlife pros have ditched their DSLRs for Z bodies lately, and as I noted above, dropping the FTZ adapter, dropping size and weight, and adding a teleconverter are mighty tempting. The more pros I work with that I show the Z9/400mm combo to, the more of them I see putting in NPS orders, which again means they’ll cut in line to ordinary customers.
So... I’m sorry if I caused more demand for an impossible-to-obtain product. However, I believe in the usefulness of accurate information, and thus try to provide my best take on current products. Even if that makes wait lists grow longer.
