In the last two years, we’ve had four new Z cameras introduced: Z30, Zfc, Z8, and Z9. You’ll note something about that: (1) two top-end cameras; and (2) two rebrandings of the lowest camera.
In the middle of the Z lineup we have three cameras:
- Z5 — 3 years old with 12 year-old sensor
- Z6 II — 2.5 years old with 5 year-old sensor
- Z7 II — 2.5 years old with 6 year-old sensor
We also have DSLRs that weren’t replaced in this “middle”:
- D7500 —5 years old with 6.5 year-old sensor
- D500 — 6.5 years old with 6.5 year-old sensor
I get it. The DSLR-era product update cycles for Nikon were basically one year for bottom consumer products (D3xxx, D5xxx), two years for middle lineup products (D7xxx), and four years for the top pro products. But that was back when Nikon was selling over 3m units a year. Today Nikon is selling ~700k units a year. R&D expenses have been cut proportionally, too.
The problem is that the middle of the Nikon lineup is aging, while the top two competitors (Canon and Sony) are iterating their mid-level product. To some, this makes Nikon look non-competitive in the sweet spot of the market (US$1500-3000, basically). Sweet spot in that the products in that realm are solid performers with extended features people can grow into, at a price point that many can afford, and a price that also allows for strong profit margins for the manufacturer.
As much as others keep harping on “Nikon needs a higher resolution camera”—e.g. a Sony A7R Mark V competitor—I actually see Nikon’s primary “needs” as being different: We need a D7500/D500 equivalent camera in DX, and we need a more competitive Z6 III. Slot a competitive DX camera at US$1500 and a solid Z6 update at US$2500, and Nikon suddenly is fully back in the running in the sweet spot.
Someone recently anonymously sent me a set of specs they claim were from a Nikon prototype of what they claimed would sit in DX at US$1500. If those specs are correct, then Nikon will still be lagging some at that price point. Particularly so when you consider that by the time Nikon fills that spot, Fujifilm will have started discounting their recent T and H models, Canon will be discounting the R7, and Sony will likely be iterating in that arena, as well. But I don’t think those specs or pricing were correct. However, it does show that rumors are starting to trickle, and you need to be careful what you do and don’t believe.
Unfortunately, new models for Nikon all comes back to image sensors. Other than the Z8/Z9 image sensor, Nikon no longer has an image sensor that could really be called state-of-the-art. 20mp DX is now fully aged. 24mp FX is also fully aged. Nikon needs to migrate to newer image sensors for the Z5 II (e.g. just use the current Z6 II one), the Z6 III (needs something beyond just the tweak Panasonic got from Sony for the S5 II), and especially for DX. That’s a lot of sensor development cost for what probably is ~500k units/year in Nikon’s lineup.
Sometimes you have to put the money in to get a payback out. Right now, Nikon still seems to be riding cost reduction to get profitability back. You can’t ride that horse forever; it wears out with time.
Nikon Rumors is currently predicting that an FX Zf legacy-inspired camera will be the next product launched by Nikon (in fall). Think about what image sensor would go into that camera: the 24mp or non-stacked 45mp existing one, right? Think also about how the similar Df and Zfc were short-term hits, not long-term ones. To me, launching a Zf at a time when the Z6 III, Z7 III, and DX all need attention is a holding action, at best. In other words, produce something new that will win a few sales to keep the financial numbers looking okay. That’s not engineering, that’s bean counting.
I can only hope that a Z8 and a rumored Zf aren’t the only cameras we see from Nikon this year. On the other hand, if that’s the full extent of this year’s introductions, you can bet the Z30, Z50, Z5, Z6 II, and Z7 II will all be on serious discount come the holiday season.
Just prior to and early on in the COVID pandemic, Nikon Imaging executives were making the rounds continuously saying that they were going to step on the gas in terms of new product launches. That did not happen. Indeed, the opposite happened: 2020 produced three launches, none particularly unique; 2021 gave us two, one unique (Z9); while 2022 gave us one that was not at all unique (Z30). Here in 2023 we’re back at one (Z8), and I’d again say that it’s not all that unique, as it’s basically a body redesign when you look at it carefully.
Let’s hope that something else is happening under the covers where we can’t see (e.g. image sensor development).
Bonus: not that Sony is doing all that much, themselves. Since 2020 Sony’s mostly been throwing vlogging at customers, with the A1 being the only truly interesting new still camera recently. The A7/A7R iterations were nice, but mostly cleanup, in my opinion. Curiously, the A7 update was not on the usual two-year cycle (ala what Nikon and Sony had been doing previously), and even the A7R update wasn’t exactly on cycle, either. Perhaps three years is the new mid-line cycle length.
