Now that the Road Map for lenses is down to one remaining lens—the 35mm f/1.2—the question is what comes next in the Nikkor Z-mount lineup. Nikon has now said that they won't tell us ;~(. No new road map will be published.
Nikon did tell us a quantity: 14 more lenses in the coming two-and-a-half years. Basically one new lens every two months. But as to what those lenses will be, it's now up to our imagination, which I'm sure will be sometimes disappointed with the future reality.
Some obvious holes in the established prime lines (f/1.2, f/1.8, etc.) certainly exist.
- For the f/1.2 S-line, for instance, we have nothing outside the 35/50/85 focal length center. Extending that to a 24mm f/1.2 and 105mm f/1.2 seems possible in a future cycle.
- At f/1.8 S we are missing anything under 20mm, plus a 28mm and a 105mm.
- The pancake and muffin primes are also squeezed between a tight 26mm to 50mm focal length range, so pushing outside those focal lengths would certainly be welcome.
My guess? Six new primes in those existing lines will come by the end of Nikon’s 2025 fiscal year.
Despite the work already done—and done well as I'll note in another article later this week—the telephoto side is likely to see more entrants.
- A shorter PF (phase fresnel) lens is coming, likely 600mm f/6.3 VR S to round out the options at that focal length.
- We don’t have an exotic zoom yet, and we had two in the F-mount, so I’d guess that something like a 100-300mm f/2.8 and/or 200-500mm f/4 are being strongly considered.
- The most missing telephoto, though is a more modest one, either a 70-200mm f/4 or 70-300mm variable aperture.
I’d bet we’ll see three new telephoto options in that same future time period as the six primes I predict.
Which leaves us five other possibilities.
- Almost certainly we’ll see tilt/shift and more macro optics hit the shelves.
- Plus Nikon hasn’t really explored any of the “new” zoom focal lengths (e.g. 20-70mm, 35-150mm).
- Nor has Nikon filled out some of the asked for other zooms (e.g. 16-35mm).
So, just in “obvious” line-up fillers we easily have enough possibilities to fill those 14 lenses Nikon said are coming. Unfortunately, we won't see another road map, though, so everything will come when it comes. We’ve apparently transitioned from the “make sure everyone knows we’re committed” phase to the “surprise users with a series of new additional choices” period.
The only crack in wall is DX. The initial two DX lenses were surprises introduced with the also surprise Z50. The three other DX lenses that then made it into the Road Map mostly just reaffirmed some commitment to DX. But without a new lens plan from Nikon, DX goes back to having a completely unknown future. I want to believe that Nikon will produce a Z70/Z90 type camera and surprise announce a couple of new DX lenses with that. Nikon is, after all, a creature of habit. But what I believe and what Nikon does can often be different things.
The problem is that customers abhore a vacuum and start speculating endlessly as to why/whether/what is happening when there's a clear missing set of products. Moreover, customers are making decisions about competitors' APS-C products in lieu of information about Nikon (DX) ones.
FX cameras and FX lenses are now what I’d consider a “full” lineup, and yes, technically we don’t need more road maps for them. Frankly, I don't mind surprise launches once a lineup is mostly filled in as the FX one is. However, DX does need a road map, lest Nikon simply fumble those customers all to competitors. Sorry Nikon, but you're shooting yourself in the foot by creating more samplers, leakers, and switchers due to the dearth of DX dissemination.
Bottom line: Nikon has closed their kimono.
