Let’s play a little thought game for a moment. It’s really simple:
- What if Nikon introduced a Z70 camera at CP+?
- What if Nikon introduced a Z6 III camera at CP+?
- What if Nikon introduced a Z8 camera at CP+?
- What if Nikon introduced a 200-600mm f/4.5-6.3 VR lens at CP+?
- What if Nikon introduced a 12-28mm f/3.5-6.3 PZ DX lens at CP+?
Go ahead, think about it for a moment before giving me your answer. I’ve got some time…
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Here’s the real answer: every one of those products would be immediately out of stock due to too many pre-orders. Some would be out of stock for months. The fact that we haven’t seen a product registration for wireless and noise interference in any country yet for a new Nikon camera would also tend to suggest that any camera Nikon might introduce is not yet in production (you shouldn't pile up finished product until the Conformity Marking and manual legalese is approved and finalized).
Nikon is getting themselves into a bit of a self-imposed trap. Their legacy user base is huge. Many are still waiting for the mirrorless camera that pushes their last DSLR into retirement. But the longer the supply chain and other issues postpone new products, two things happen: (1) the number of those waiting for that next new camera grows in size; and (2) some give up and go to competitors.
The good and bad news for Nikon is so far #1 > #2. Good because it means plenty of future sales for Nikon. Bad because it means less future sales than they could have achieved, and that Nikon won’t be able to keep up with the demand for those who did stick around.
Nikon has powered through previous externally-produced down times in the past with eventual excellent new products. But that has tended to come with also not being to meet initial demand. For us long-time Nikon users/observers, when Nikon next introduces a significant product, I’m pretty sure it’s going to feel like Deja Vu All Over Again.
Update: While going over Nikon’s 3rd Quarter financials carefully, I found one anomaly: inventories in the Imaging group were significantly up. I have a suspicion that Nikon has been building parts supply for future products. Why? Because usually when inventories start trending up at Nikon they resort to sales, and just the opposite seemed to be occurring at the end of last year. There’s little reason for them to sit on finished inventory of existing products while their market share drifts downward.
