Nikon offers us clues as to which lenses have way more demand than supply (or just are being produced in small supply in the first place): (1) what they say is constrained; and (2) what they do and don’t discount. Couple that with looking at what’s in stock at most dealers and you come up with this current list of supply-constrained Z-mount lenses:
- 58mm f/0.95 S NOCT (made in very low volume)
- 100-400mm f/4.5-5.6 VR S (demand still somewhat higher than supply, though supply is solid)
- 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S (demand higher than supply, supply is hundreds of units/month)
- 600mm f/4 TC VR S (demand higher than supply, supply is hundreds of units/month)
- 800mm f/6.3 PF VR S (demand higher than supply, supply is hundred of units/month)
The f/1.8 primes, the f/2.8 zooms, and even the 400mm f/4.5 VR S seem to be in some form of balance where supply is meeting demand enough that you can find them in stock in plenty of places. The fact that NikonUSA backed off the discounts on some of these for February would tend to tell me that they’re not overstocked, though.
My advice for each of these lenses:
- 58mm f/0.95 S NOCT. (Updated) Some vendors have these in stockJust put in an order with a large, reputable camera dealer. They’ll order one from NikonUSA, and given the low volume of this lens, the next US shipment will probably have your lens on it. Wait time: typically no more than a month.
- 100-400mm f/4.5-5.6 VR S. Ditto. Order from your local or national camera dealer. Nikon is producing this lens en mass. Any dealer worth their salt has more of these lenses on order, so if they’re temporarily out of stock, they won’t be for long. Wait time: typically less than a month.
- 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S. If you’re not NPS, you’ve got a bit of a problem. This is a low volume production product, and while I’m seeing a constant stream of them, it’s a low-volume stream, not a fire hose. While Nikon hasn’t said orders have resumed, order from a large, reputable camera dealer if they allow it (some smaller dealers are reluctant to place an order for such an expensive product because you might change your mind while you’re waiting). Wait time: measured in a few to six months is my current assessment. The other exotics and the 400mm f/4.5 dropped the demand curve for the f/2.8 TC some.
- 600mm f/4 TC VR S. If you’re not NPS, you’re out of luck. Another low-volume product, and initial orders were much like the original 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S orders, meaning that NPS Priority Purchase alone overwhelmed the supply. Wait time: I’d bet a year if you’re not NPS. Even NPS members who don’t already have an order in will be waiting for months.
- 800mm f/6.3 PF VR S. If you’re not NPS, you’ve got a bit of a problem. This is a low volume production product, and while I’m seeing a constant stream of them, it’s a low-volume stream, not a fire hose. While Nikon hasn’t said orders have resumed, order from a large, reputable camera dealer (some smaller dealers are reluctant to place an order for such an expensive product because you might change your mind while you’re waiting). Wait time: Better than the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S, I think. Nikon is producing more of these PF lenses than the big exotic, so despite having similar high demand, the supply is a little better. Still, probably measured in many months for new orders.
