Nikon Z System News and Commentary
The Problem With Restrictive Mount Licensing
As you're probably aware, Sigma just launched a US$2995 500mm f/5.6 lens that's relatively small (9", or 234mm) and light (3 pounds, or 1400g). (It also has an Arca-Swiss compatible foot, but that's another story for another day.) In some ways the new Sigma reminds me of the 400mm f/4.5: shorter in overall length due to a somewhat different optical design, and use of materials to keep it light, as well.
Until recently, Nikon had a pretty clear lead in the quality mirrorless telephoto choices. Two zooms, two 400's, two 600's, and the 800mm PF all made for a healthy set that already has everyone confused as to which one to buy (hint: if you can't articulate a specific reason, the lenses to buy are the 180-600mm f/5.6-6.3 VR or the 400mm f/4.5 VR S; anything else and you must need ridiculous reach, have perfected pixel peep, or are a bokeh buff).
Sony, meanwhile, had basically two zooms and a single 400mm and 600mm choice until recently, when they added the 300mm f/2.8GM OSS. Now with the Sigma addition, another spot in the lineup is filled, and it's a spot Nikon doesn't have covered. Okay, you could use the 500mm f/5.6E PF VR on an FTZ adapter, but people aren't buying that new to use on a Z body that I can see.
Sigma almost certainly could have made a Z-mount version of their new 500mm f/5.6, but the fact that they didn't seems to indicate that Nikon is still being protective of their mount. Perhaps even protective because they have future plans to bring their own 500mm f/5.6 PF over to the Z-mount.
The problem is simple: if you have multiple choices in another brand and more companies filling out the lens lineup, the bodies become more desirable. Sometimes I think that Nikon doesn't actually want to sell more bodies. They make system mistakes that put a ceiling on their potential. This isn't anything new, it's been a fundamental problem with Nikon for decades. Long gone are the days where Nikon actually had a full system. It might go all the way back to the F3 or F4.
Also, as usual, the problem is that Nikon isn't actually fully connected to its customers. What would its customers want?
More choice, basically, even though they already are confused by the choices they have ;~). They want to know that that little box they paid US$4000+ for (Z8, Z9) can do anything. Even if all they ever put on it is the 24-70mm f/4 S. Instead, Nikon paternalistically tends to keep saying "you can do this, and only this, because that's all we'll allow."
Imagine for a moment that the new Sigma was available for the Z-mount. You'd have a choice of two lenses at about the same price, that were the same physical length, with the shorter 400mm f/4.5 being faster and lighter than the 500mm f/5.6. Some people would pick the aperture (and Nikon reputation), some might prefer more reach at the expense of light. But both those groups would need a Nikon Z body to put it on ;~).
It's interesting to me that Nikon allowed the Tamron 150-500mm f/5-6.7 onto the mount. That gave me hope that Nikon wasn't playing too restrictive with the mount. However, it does still seem that Nikon is trying to play the middle of the protectionist road with the mount. Sony's over off on the left shoulder letting anyone play; Canon's over on the right side saying "nobody gets to do anything." The irony is that everyone can understand Sony's and Canon's positions. Nobody can understand Nikon's ;~). Another irony is that because the Sigma 500mm f/5.6 is also available in the L-mount, that makes the Panasonic full frame bodies a bit more competitive.
High tech firms seem to always want to micromanage and "own" their customer base. This works if you have a monopoly, or perhaps even an oligopoly. But it doesn't work well in a competitive market, as customers eventually become smart enough to figure out when you're placing too many restrictions on them and opt for more "open" choices. Anticompetitive behaviors then ensue, and the market doesn't grow naturally. Eventually, closed systems become disruptible.
So, a few messages to Nikon:
- Put Arca-Swiss compatible edging on your lens plates.
- Bring out a 500mm f/5.6 PF VR S in the Z-mount, stat.
- Protect your lens lineup by making all of them even better. Best products win.
- Open the Z-mount if you want to sell more cameras (and lenses ;~).
Nikon Z-Related CP+ News
Just a compilation of things that were announced just prior to or at CP+ in Japan that relate to the Z-mount:
- Nikon: Z8 firmware C2.00 — added Birds, Auto capture, Pixel shift shooting, and much more. And yes, I'll update my book on the Z8 soon. The Zf section of the booth is a cafe-based photo stage experience, the Z8 section is a portrait stage experience. There's also a section of the booth dedicated to experiencing all the telephoto lenses.
- Laowa: 10mm f/2.8 Zero-D autofocus lens. Laowa's first autofocus lens is a full frame wide angle lens with nearly no linear distortion.
- Voigtlander: 75mm f/1.5 manual focus lens. Another Cosina-produced manual focus lens with electronic contacts.
Beyond the actual products, there's a demonstration of an upcoming Zfc firmware update. Nothing major other than a video tally frame, though you can now also see the Shooting Info screen in a color that matches your body color. Yeah, we needed that. Plus the Viltrox 27mm f/1.2 Pro lens (DX) may be about to finally appear.
I continue to hear background discussion that there will be a post-CP+/WPPI announcement, but details are scarce, including the actual planned date. It's becoming increasingly likely that I'll be offline for my usual annual month away from the Internet when the next Z camera is announced.
The NX MobileAir Mess
Yes, NX MobileAir is (still) a mess.
What should be a solid and useful tool is one of the biggest software cluster f**** I've seen.
Let me point out some of the (current) problems:
- You're charged for storage on your own mobile device. That's right, the program is free and works right up until you try to take a 1000th image or create a new album. For the lovely price of only US$4.49 a month (US$53.88 a year) you can "unlock" the storage on the phone you already paid Apple for. I'm sure Nikon will call this approach Trialware, but the problem with that is that in your "trial" you'll discover all the other problems with the program ;~).
It doesn't work with USB-C devices. That's right, the USB-C on your Z8 or Z9 can't speak to the USB-C on your iPhone 15 Max Pro or your iPad Pro (post 2018). Brilliant. So for that US$4.49 a month you get software that hasn't been updated to perform on the platform it was programmed for since 2018 (iPad) or September 2023 (iPhone). Gives you a lot of confidence that the crack team that needs that monthly tithe is working hard to make things work for you, doesn't it?If you've got a Zf, Z8, or Z9, you can sync NX MobileAir by making sure that NETWORK > USB data connection > iPhone is set.- High efficiency raw doesn't display. Nikon's notice sent to the NX MobileAir app says "We are currently confirming the details." Uh, nothing needs to be confirmed. It doesn't work. And it doesn't work because Apple apparently doesn't have a license to use the IntoPix SDK. All those coders you hired with my US$4.49/month are not going to be able to fix this on their own. Someone has to call Apple and convince them to license the IntoPix intellectual property. Good luck with that.
- It gets interrupted. I'll quote Nikon: "Launching other applications or using network connections for other purposes may interrupt picture import and FTP upload. Consider investing in a smart device for use solely with NX MobileAir." Oh, and make sure it's an iPhone 14 or earlier, because USB-C doesn't work; you need a Lightning cable ;~).
- It's not really supported. It's right there in the License Agreement: "No support services, including, but not limited to repair or replacement of and answer of any inquiry whatsoever by any means about the APPLICATION, is provided by Nikon, its employees, distributors, dealers, and agents."
At its core, NX MobileAir is simply a repackaging of an Apache 2.0 server behind a minimum of user interface, plus a few other bits, like filtering and IPTC data entry. It's very tightly focused on a specific problem (getting images from camera to a remote FTP server) and not much else. You'd think that with such a narrow focus the programmers could create a better product ;~).
NX MobileAir needs some love. Or a third-party alternative.
Will the Triplets Get a Sibling?
We'll likely know by the end of the year, but more and more I'm getting the vibe that Nikon is going to get out of the DX business.
The downplaying of DX started in 2009 in Europe, with the test of an ad campaign trying to persuade early DSLR buyers to upgrade to FX. That escalated to a global (and successful) effort in 2012 with the introduction of the D600. By 2014 Nikon had a full(ish) FX lineup with the D610, D750, D810, and D4s and the efforts intensified. We've had only seven DX DSLRs since then, and five were extremely modest changes (D3xxx and D5xxx "iterations"), one was a downgrade in a number of ways (D7500), and only one (D500) was something catering to a long-term DX crowd.
As those of you reading this know, I've long been contemplating the meaning of the Z DZ triplets (Z50, Zfc, and Z30). That's essentially the same camera in three different guises. What was behind the idea of putting the same guts in three very different body styles?
I'm beginning to think it was a test to see what style resonated in the entry market.
Consider for a moment that the "entry" FX model has the number 5. And that there are only 9 numbers available with the current naming scheme. I'm probably giving Nikon too much credit here for forethought, though. After all, the DSLR full frame lineup started with a 6 ;~). But it could be that they wanted a dual pointer towards where something fit in the lineup. For example, a Z30 is less than a Z5 because it has the zero, but also because 3 is less than 5. But it could be that Nikon always planned a truly entry Z3.
Which leads me to writing about "Nikon planning." One reason why it's so difficult to predict from existing patterns with Nikon is that they plan over a huge time period, and then adjust. At least 8 years of plan-ahead, but I believe their product tactics really extend to at least 12 years, as I once saw a chart at Nikon HQ that suggested that. As many of you know by now, one of my chores in Silicon Valley was trying to keep track of technology that was five to ten years out and what it could do for our products. Nikon engineering does pretty much the same thing. So it's not unreasonable to assume that Nikon Imaging has a rough sketch of what they think changes in their model line over a 10 year period.
Other than some tinkering work in the labs, actual product development is generally a two-year (consumer/prosumer) or four-year (pro) process at Nikon, sometimes with external events or "tech misses" upsetting that schedule. Also, remember that the camera side has to coordinate with the lens side if there are going to be any ground-breaking changes.
Don't worry, I'm getting to my point now ;~).
So if we were to walk into Nikon R&D today we'd find a small number of products that are in their two-year process, at least one that's in its four year process, and a general road map for how everything fits together through the next decade. The question I have is "where is DX in any of that?"
I don't know. I've received no hint of anything DX for awhile now other than a possible lens rebranding. I do continue to get hints and bits and pieces about things progressing in FX, so this is puzzling me. There is precedent at Nikon for a group working on a specific line of product to be in Silent Running mode. But why would the DX group be doing that?
What I do know is this: with Nikon's financial year coming to an end in a little over a month and the near final data being looked at closely as to how it worked out (or not) to plan—short, medium, and long term plans, that is—Nikon is right now headed into their yearly review period where top management is evaluating everything, and about to decree what needs to be done next and what doesn't. Everything in progress gets a close examination and a yay or nay from the Big Buddhas sitting at the top of the management chain. As a result, short term plans will get redone, medium term plans will get some revisions, and long term plans are at least re-evaluated and perhaps redrawn.
On occasion, this "year-end" analysis has upset the product plans within the Imaging group, particularly when something that was expected to work didn't, or some tech that was expected to be available wasn't. I suspect that the reason we didn't get a Z6 III in fall of 2022 as expected is that something wasn't working out as originally planned and during one of those year-end evaluation meetings upper management dictated "push it to the next cycle and make it better."
If you think about what Nikon's top management might be saying right now about recent products in their year-end meetings, I think you'd get something like this:
- Lenses. Really nice job with the telephoto team hitting it out of the park.
- Z9. Great job.
- Z8. Another great job.
- Zf. Really, another great job?
- Z30. Uh, what's happening there?
Yes, the Zfc would also have likely still have gotten a thumbs up, but then the Zf came along and eclipsed it on the bottom line. Moreover, the Zfc was just a very mild change to the now five-year old Z50 on the inside. It may look different, but it's essentially the same camera.
Thus, I worry about DX. The Z50 won't survive past the end of the year due to Europe's new charger regulations. The Zfc still needs appropriate lenses, which haven't appeared (at least from Nikon). The Z30 has only one lens suitable for vlogging and really didn't add anything else that hadn't already been said in Z DX.
So I think you can see why I'm worried about the DX vibe I think I'm picking up.
It isn't that you couldn't just stick the EXPEED7 and the Zfc's USB-charging in the Z50, call it a II, and not have a remarkably good camera to sell. You can. That's really low-hanging fruit, and both things would be big improvements for the aging Z50. The real question is "why wouldn't you do that?" The longer it doesn't happen, the less likely that DX has a future in the Z System.
Of course, I see problems with DX going away, if that's where we're headed. First, Nikon needs more than the Z5 for the entry level, and whatever that is has to be smaller and lighter. The precedent would suggest to create a Z3 from the Z5, akin to the Z30/Z50 relationship. But then we need a wide angle zoom that's small and compatible. Why create a Z30 and 12-28mm f/3.5-5.6 PZ DX lens when you're going to do that all over again in FX a couple of years later?
DX has been rudderless at Nikon since the D300 (2007), basically. Sure, the underling cameras were nicely proportioned into D3xxx, D5xxx, and D7xxx models and continuously "iterated" starting in 2009, but that's about it. Everything since, other than the D500 and the Z50 have been tinkering, not elaborating.
So, do we get another elaboration, or is the tinkering now done? I don't know. But again, I think we'll have a good idea of which by the end of 2024.
Thoughts on the Z8 C2.00 Firmware Update
Updated: 2/10/24
Sometimes I have to complain about my customers ;~). It seems that everyone is now sending me an email asking if I'll update my Complete Guide to the Nikon Z8 to cover the new C2.00 firmware. This is akin to asking me "have you gone out of business?" If I do decide to answer such emails I've learned to also include "I don't have a target date for when I'll be done with that."
I'll repeat: yes, I'm working on a revision to my book, no I don't know when it will be done.
I understand that you want to know how these features work. But there's a lot more to things than just adding a quick rehash of Nikon's sparse Supplemental Manual. For instance, Pixel shift shooting. While most people are just asking "does it work"—yes, it does—they're missing something that Nikon glossed over: you can now set a button+dial customization for it. I have to find all these little things, integrate them into 1000+ pages of already dense material, rationalize customizations with other choices, and much more to justify a new edition of a Complete Guide.
I do have some comments about the firmware update, however.
- Nikon continues to have an issue with firmware update completion. If you start a firmware update, walk away, and come back to find the screen black and press the shutter release partway, the camera will spring back to life as if it is finished updating. Virtually all of the firmware update issues I've encountered or helped others with can be attributed to this "finishing up" issue. The proper way is to monitor the camera during an update, wait for the "Turn off the camera" message, and turn off the camera. If for some reason you don't do that and have an issue: (1) try resetting the camera; or (2) reinstall the firmware update and wait for the message and do what it says. What appears to happen—and things vary with how a camera is set at the time—is that update completion not done correctly can leave the camera in an indefinite state. Some variables are muddled, and then when you try to go and do something, you encounter a bug because of that. This problem is totally on Nikon, and Nikon customer support doesn't know the drill I just wrote about, above, so will do silly things like say "send the camera back to Nikon for repair." It doesn't need repair. What needs repair is the way Nikon handles update completion.
- Auto capture is interesting, but seems like beta work still. First off, the UI is totally bonkers for Auto capture. Second, sequence and settings seem nuanced in a way you can't figure out until you actually do trial and error. Third, there are times when it won't seem to work, and it's difficult to tell whether or not you did something wrong or the camera did. In general, it works well with well considered settings on a largish recognized subject that isn't moving too fast.
- Nikon continues to think that Type A, Type B, etc. are meaningful names for options, probably because they don't know what the option actually is and how to describe it. For example, the shutter sound Type: one of the primary benefits of the five sounds is that people with frequency-based hearing issues can find a sound that they hear more clearly. However, this then gets strange when you start using high continuous bursts, as the sounds aren't that well thought out in terms of that. Nikon needs a Product Marketing Manager who knows what they're doing, and has enough authority over the engineers to keep them from just "doing some engineering things" and moving on to another problem.
- People have asked for focus distance info forever, but be careful what you ask for. In manual focus, you're now shown a remarkably precise focus distance (e.g. 0.43m, or 43 centimeters). I can pretty much guarantee that the distance isn't exactly .43m, nor can you just measure a distance to subject and set that using this new gauge (partly because ED glass focuses differently at different temperatures). There's also a lot of lag in presenting you the current distance. The usual reason people ask for distance is to calculate DOF, which opens up another can of worms: which theory of DOF are you going to apply?
- Yes, autofocus performance changed, but don't ask me how (yet). First up, we have the new Birds subject choice. That's something that seems to work like the Z9 change, but I still have more testing to do. But buried in the notes for the update are suggestions that other things changed, as well, particularly 3D-tracking. But one thing every Z8 user should note is that Nikon is now saying previous firmware versions didn't recognize AF fine-tuning options correctly when subjects were detected. I hate these vague and obscure "something changed" notes, as it takes me quite a bit of time to reverse engineer what really happened. Nikon really needs to let a couple of technically minded pros talk to the engineers in Tokyo, so that we can convey to Nikon users what Nikon marketing is incapable of.
- Not noted by most was an interesting change. NX MobileAir can now download and upload Save menu settings files. It seems that this is Nikon's response to all us pros asking for a better solution for settings files. It isn't great, but it's a step. Simple ask: when we download from the camera, let us name that file; when we upload from the mobile device, let us pick a named file. Done. (Well mostly; this is still a two-step process that requires a USB-C cable and we want a one-step internal-to-the-camera process that can be controlled by buttons.)
- NikonUSA is back to being NikonUSA. Despite my asking for early access to the update and willingness to sign an NDA, that didn't happen. What also didn't happen is that NikonUSA marketing didn't even send me the press release when they did release the firmware update I knew was coming.
- Sad to say, there are some clear bugs in the new firmware. Perhaps if Nikon had actually let me test the new software in beta (see previous bullet), they might have gotten fixed prior to release. I've found a half dozen instances so far—typically a sequence—which all seem to have a similar characteristic: a feature/button stops working temporarily (in extreme situations, the camera freezes). Cycling the power almost always "fixes" the problem. This indicates to me that a variable of some sort is not getting updated properly or a loop/condition is not correctly cleared. I've also heard from users about similar problems. Hopefully, they'll get fixed.
- Yes, there are undocumented changes. I've found several already and am having to change wording nuance in my book. Moreover, there are some behavior differences that might trip some up. On the Z6/Z7, for instance, Exposure delay mode wouldn't allow AF-C focus to continue during the delay. On the Z8, it does (though I seem to detect a brief pause at the start of the delay).
Z's Return Nikon to Growth
The financial results for Nikon's last quarter of calendar 2023 are in, and to quote them: "revenue grew on strong sales in the Imaging Products Business..."
Every part of Nikon's business was better than the same quarter last year, but Imaging revenue was up 20.4%, with profit up 4.2%. Average selling price rose, the weak yen helped things, and the Zf and Z8 were specifically called out as reasons why sales improved. Nikon sold the more cameras in the quarter than any other quarter since the last calendar quarter in 2021. All good. Nikon believes that they'll finish their fiscal year (ends March 31, 2024) at 800k interchangeable lens cameras sold (market share 13.1%) and 1.25m lenses sold (market share 12.8%). However, also noted was that much of the expansion is being driven by China, a market that is started to experience devaluation overall and may prove tough to continue to make advances in. Also, given Nikon's forecast, it doesn't appear any new camera will be on sale until at least April.
Commentary: The problem I have is "where does Nikon think they're driving?" The management plans all essentially say that Imaging should be used to provide funds for expansion in other areas. I continue to find that problematic. Currently, 42% of Nikon's overall corporate sales are cameras and consumer facing while 43% of Nikon's business is equipment and parts and business facing (the other 15% is healthcare). And of that 43% business-facing, 29% is Precision Equipment, which management plans also say should be used to provide funds for expansion in other areas.
It feels to me like Nikon is a company that isn't all-in on 71% of their current business, just trying to milk them rather than grow them.
For example, it seems clear at this point that Coolpix has been added to the graveyard that includes Nikon 1 and KeyMission, among others. DSLRs are in hospice waiting out the end. DX seems to be in a managed care facility.
On the other hand, Nikon has found a couple of strategies that are making at least FX mirrorless look like a winner. The first strategy centers on the Zf and the energy Nikon first found with the Zfc. The second is using major firmware updates on significant cameras to take the place of new camera announcements, pushing well received cameras (Z8, Z9) further forward in potential buyer's minds.
To me, the first strategy is a deceptive and short-lived one. Why do I say that? Where are the lenses? ;~) Certainly there are no lenses that support the Zfc idea, and I count only four that could be said to do that for the Zf, and they're all the least capable Nikkors. Most of you reading this know that I've been buzzing about (lack of) lenses now for 17 years. In essence, not building out a system says to your customer "you've bought a dead end, please plan to spend even more money buying our real product." (Nikon's not the only company failing at this, by the way.)
Insulting your customer like that is a good way not to keep that customer.
Meanwhile, the firmware update strategy—which realistically started with the Z6/Z7 but has now hit new heights with the Z8 and Z9—is a solid one, but again, short-lived in its current form. Sony is really feeling the product advancement heat now. Sony owners are looking at their company of choice, who says "buy a new camera," while looking on in envy at Nikon owners who are getting "here's something that's free and makes your camera new."
However, neither Sony nor Nikon are doing the correct thing, methinks. In Sony's case, the customer runs out of money. In Nikon's case, the customer doesn't need to buy a new camera. The correct approach is probably in between, but is a tough one to get right: HaaS (that's Hardware as a Service). At the simplest, that would be for-a-fee firmware updates. At its most complex, it would be close to long-term extendable leasing.
Bottom line: Right now, Nikon's executing quite well in a fairly narrow opportunity. The challenge will be to either continue to execute that well in a narrowing opportunity, or to expand the opportunities. Right now, it appears to me that Nikon management has chosen the former.
An Early Valentine for Z8 Users
Nikon today released firmware 2.0 for the Z8 camera, and as with the major numbered Z9 firmware updates, it's a doozy:
- Pixel shift shooting has been added (from Zf).
- Rich Tone Portrait, Flat Monochrome, and Deep Tone Monochrome Picture Controls have been added (from Zf).
- Additional bracketing value options have been added.
- Birds has been added to AF subject detection options (from Z9).
- Auto capture has been added (from Z9).
- Full format has been added (from Z9).
- Pre-release capture buffer time has been extended to 300 seconds (from Z9).
- Focus point border width was added to CSM #A11.
- Non-CPU lens data now allows user specified values (not just previous Nikon-used ones).
- White balance and exposure compensation can be changed when using Recall shooting functions.
- Exposure delay mode has been added (from various previous cameras).
- Added new control customizations.
- Added focus distance information during manual focus.
- N-Log video recording now allows LO ISO values (from Z9).
- Hi-Res Zoom now has new speeds available.
- Slow motion video recording (30Px4, 25Px4, 24Px5) is now available in FullHD (from various previous cameras).
- Playback has several new or changed options.
- and at least two dozen other small changes, support for power zoom lenses, as well as bug fixes.
One thing to note about this firmware update is that if you're using other Nikon software, you may need to update it: Camera Control Pro 2.37.0 or later, IPTC Preset Manager 1.3.0 or later, NX Studio 1.6.0 or later, NX MobileAir 1.1.4 (iOS) or 1.2.0 (Android) or later, NX Field 1.4.0 or later, and you must also use the just announced update of NX Tether (2.0.0).
As usual, the firmware and supplemental manual are on the Nikon download site.