Nikon Z System News and Commentary
Nikon Firmware/Software Updates
Nikon today released version 5.10 firmware for the Z9 camera. The two big features are (1) the ability to set shutter angle (perversely referenced as Shutter mode) so that motion blur remains the same no matter what the frame rate, and (2) the ability to change the color of Zebra stripes as well as the transparency and position of on-screen brightness displays (histogram, waveforms). Smaller changes impact Hi-res Zoom and other changes related to upcoming PZ lenses.
A number of fixes were done, as well, including two that caused some of the "hung camera" problems when taking bursts of images.
Along with the new Z9 firmware, Nikon also updated NX Mobile Air so that it will directly support Adobe's Frame.io when connected to a Z6III, Z8, or Z9 camera. This feature is not in today's update to version 1.3.2 on iOS; only Android users are currently supported.
The Screw-drive Rumors Return
The background When Nikon introduced the Z System, they also introduced an FTZ adapter so that DSLR users could use their existing lenses with the new mirrorless system. The problem with the FTZ adapter was simple: it didn't autofocus with all DSLR autofocus lenses; you could mount a screw-drive lens, but it wouldn't autofocus on a Z System camera.
Screw-drive lenses are ones which don't have a motor built into the lens (AF-I, AF-S, and AF-P lenses do have such a motor). Instead, they require the camera to have a lens focus motor, and it is engaged via a shaft that extends through the camera's lens mount into the lens (the screw-drive).
A number of significant lenses were left in the cold by the lack of screw-drive support: 17-35mm f/2.8, 20mm f/2.8, 24mm f/2.8, 28-70mm f/2.8, 35-70mm f/2.8, 80-200mm f/2.8, 105mm f/2 DC, 135mm f/2 DC, 180mm f/2.8, and the 200mm f/4 Micro-Nikkor. One DX lens also needs to be added to that "significant" list: the 10.5mm f/2.8. I use "significant" to describe these lenses as they don't exist in AF-S (F-mount) or Z-mount form, and were in use by a large number of DSLR owners.
Complaints about no screw-drive support were instantaneous, and not really addressed by Nikon subsidiaries or executives, despite being asked repeatedly about whether such support would ever appear.
This wasn't the first time this lack of support has happened. Back when the D40 was introduced in 2006, Nikon took out the screw-drive mechanism, and that was true for pretty much all subsequent truly consumer DSLRs made afterwards; only the prosumer and pro DSLRs had in-camera focus motors and the necessary screw-drive mechanism. The complaints about the FTZ were basically the same as they were with the D40 and subsequent consumer DSLRs, and Nikon's lack of real response to those complaints was the same, as well.
The rumor About 10 days ago, a post in China resurfaced the rumor that Nikon is preparing an FTZ adapter that supports lenses that require a camera motor, the so-called screw-drive lenses that were typical in the early D era. This was quickly followed with a more specific post that said "Nikon [will] announce a Z-mount adapter for [screw-drive] lenses next year." As usual, this was picked up first in Japan by sites such a Digicame-info, and then onto other sites such as Nikon Rumors. From there, threads on the usual fora started appearing about the rumor, often with the same participants who've been asking for such an adapter for six years.
The discussion Nikon has long been the top interchangeable lens camera brand with deep legacy support (Pentax would be the other, but didn't have the market share Nikon had in the digital age). But that legacy support has not been complete. A number of dead ends exist in Nikon's technology over their history, but I'd say that getting rid of screw-drive is probably the most important and most contentious.
People buy lenses to specific purpose. A good case in point are the two DC lenses or the 200mm f/4 Micro-Nikkor. These provide unique abilities that have not resurfaced in an AF-I, AF-S, AF-P, or Z-mount lens. Not being able to use these lenses to full potential with your latest camera is problematic, and in essence violates the whole notion of interchangeable lens mount. People want the lens look they paid for, but they also want to move with the times and get current technology cameras.
The "easy pickings" for Nikon are over at this point. In my surveys of long-time DSLR owners I find three groups: (1) convinced they'll stay DSLR and forego mirrorless; (2) want to give up DSLR but won't until the products they use are in the mirrorless world; and (3) those that have either already dipped a toe into the Z System or embraced it fully. #3 was the easy pickings. The next easiest picking is finding a new customer entirely, which Nikon's marketing isn't always up to the challenge of doing, though it's had a few modest successes at that recently.
That #2 group is hung up with something that wasn't brought over from the film/DSLR legacy. The number one and number two answers about what that is are: (a) no D7500 or D500; and (b) no screw-drive lens support. That list used to include (c) no D5/D6, (d) no D850, (e) no Df, and a few other things, but Nikon has picked most of those off and transitioned those folk to mirrorless pretty successfully. I know that Nikon does surveys similar to mine, so they must know all this (though they survey the full spectrum of customers and I mostly survey what would be called prosumer users).
So the question becomes is Nikon really going to go after (a) and (b) now? To some degree, the Z50II is poking into (a) territory (I'll have much more to say on that when my review of the camera is done). Now we once again have the resurfacing of a rumor about (b).
Here's my problem (and Nikon's): Nikon is no longer selling those screw-drive lenses. Yes, you can still get some of them new via hanging inventory, but I'm pretty sure that manufacturing is done for them. Thus, Nikon doesn't get as big a bang for their buck by producing an FTZ-screw-drive adapter today as they would have six years ago. Putting such an adapter on the market in 2025 really only lets a few folk pull a lens they already own off their shelf to use, and an even fewer number of folk would buy new Z System bodies because they could now transition properly.
Thus, there has to be a discussion of whether an FTZ-screw-drive adapter is still a "viable product." By that I mean, once you account for all R&D and move-into-production costs, do you get enough return on investment (ROI) back to justify it? If you believe you can get a higher ROI doing something else with that same money and assets, a company the size of Nikon* is should do that, instead.
True, there's the buzz-worthiness of such a product to account for (e.g. "Nikon still treats its legacy customers well."), but Nikon has turned into a company that's exceptionally efficient at generating profit on investment. The company is no longer chasing market share, bragging rights, or completeness; instead it's creating product lines everywhere that are efficient at driving financial return.
So do we believe the rumors, or not?
I believe that Nikon has had a working version of an FTZ-screw-drive adapter for some time. I once heard a credible story out of Tokyo about a photographer I won't name having tested it. It's not engineering that's keeping such an adapter off the market. It really all drives back to ROI. How many would Nikon sell, and what's the GPM? I don't know the latter number, but my surveys say that the first number isn't as high as some seem to think.
My conclusion is simple: Nikon could come out with such a product. Only the bean counters in Tokyo know whether or not they should, or not. On the impossible-to-certain continuum**, an FTZ-screw-drive adapter comes in at "possible."
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* I knew that description would get a rise out of you. For the current year Nikon Imaging is forecasting total sales of US$2b with a 15.4% profit return. A US$150 product doesn't move the bar much unless it sells in high quantity. Create too many lower cost, low volume products and you start having problems keeping that profit margin up, as you spread a lot of your existing production, inventory, sales, and marketing efforts over products that are not bringing the same level of gain.
** Impossible, improbable, possible, probable, certain.
So How's the Z System Doing?
Long gone are the days when Nikon used to sell millions of cameras a year. Their current fiscal year forecast is that they'll sell 850k interchangeable lens cameras over 12 months (April 2024 thru March 2025). Aligning available CIPA, market share, and Nikon numbers, I'd project that for the year through to March 2025 Nikon will likely have sold somewhere in the neighborhood of 200k DSLRs and 650K mirrorless cameras. The scale keeps shifting every month more towards mirrorless, so that 650K might end up being an understatement, or perhaps a late season DSLR inventory push could move that number briefly upward instead.
It's almost impossible to get verifiable unit sales of the Z cameras on a global basis. The serial number database that most turn to is missing a lot of data, particularly from Asia and China. Since the serial numbers are crowd-sourced from an English-speaking country, it's questionable if it's up to date or fully reflective of the true global situation. However, the US serial number tracking in that database is pretty close to my own, so let's examine that subset for a moment.
One thing I've been trying to figure out is where the buying energy is in the Z System. Here's what my own US serial number collection suggests the number of units is for each category (I’m leaving off specific numbers because it’s the relative volumes that we need to talk about, not argue about whether the individual numbers accurate to Sigma 6 standards):
One contention has been that Nikon has only been doing well with the higher end of their lineup. That's usually coupled with statements like "DX isn't important any more" or "Nikon needs to abandon the low end." I've never believed that to be the case, and the more data I look at, the more I'm convinced that DX really has to continue for Nikon to have long-term volume success. Without volume success, the remaining cameras would have to get pricier, making Nikon into a smaller, Leica-like camera company.
Meanwhile, for those waiting for a Z7III, what does the above volume map tell you? At 45mp, the Z8/Z9 is doing significantly better in three years than the six-year history of the Z7 series. Let's chart the same data a little differently, though:
This volume is a bit more balanced than I would have guessed. Price elasticity of demand (slightly) explains the two right-most columns, but DX is conspicuously underperforming in that respect. Some keep trying to say the DX market is going away and will probably use the above chart to defend their position, but I still contend that it's more a problem with the offerings and lineup. The Zfc, for example, has outsold the Zf about 3:1. The Z50, as a five year old camera that didn't age well was another issue, so we'll see soon if the Z50II with all its Z9-generation benefits changes that.
Finally, if we target average retail selling prices, we can take that volume and calculate how dollars might have been collected in the US market. I used US$1200 for the Z5 average selling price, US$1800 for the Z6 series, US$2800 for the Z7 series, US$5000 for the Z8/Z9, and US$850 for the DX bodies. Unfortunately, repeated instant rebates and price changes over time makes it so we have pick a mean value, and mine could be off ±10%. Still, there’s a pretty dramatic result:
These are definitely back-of-the-envelope figures, but still, it might tell you why we got a Z50II sooner than a Z5II and a Z6III before a Z7III.
Nothing in this (admittedly casual) analysis changes my ideas about how Nikon should explore new models. Put simply:
- Z9II needs to fix the small rough edges, get a better EVF, and up the performance some via an auxiliary AI chip/EXPEED8.
- Z8II should go to a higher pixel count sensor to separate a bit from the Z7III and Z9II.
- Z7III should pick up EXPEED7 and get its Z9-generation refresh as the Z8II moves away from 45mp.
- Z5II should eventually pick up EXPEED7 and get its Z9-generation refresh, but it's not immediately necessary.
- Z30II should pick up the Z50II changes that are relevant in order to stay current.
All the other models (Zfc, Zf, Z6III) should probably wait for a new image sensor, one that's more than 24mp or has some other advantage that the current ones don't. Again, this is just my opinion, not necessarily what Nikon will do.
Nikon has sold enough Z8 and Z9 models to distort the income numbers to the very highest end of their lineup. The excellence of those cameras is part of the "Nikon's back" thoughts many now have. I'm sure the Nikon management team is all grinning at themselves for having pulled off that trick. The trickle down of that technology will have strong effects in DX, a bit less so in the older Z5/Z6/Z7 model lines.
What everyone is now waiting to see is one of two things: (a) when the Z9 tech gets to their model (Z30, Z5, Z7II); or (b) what the next tech highlight will be (most likely to show up in a Z9II or Z8II, but more on that in another article coming soon).
The Answer To Your Question
The number one question on the charts this week has to do with how good the Z50II or Z6III is relative to the Z8. A subset also mention the Zf or Z9 when framing their version of the question.
I’m surprised at how effectively Nikon has made an effective continuum here. The goodness of the EXPEED7 processor is truly present on all the cameras using it. Currently that’s Z50II, Zf, Z6III, Z8, and Z9 in order of price. As you work your way up that price chain, you’ll find that limitations and liabilities get removed, at least up to the Z8 level (the Z8 and Z9 are effectively the same camera in different bodies).
So what are those limitations and liabilities?
Let’s work backwards:
- Z8 (and Z9)
- 45mp. Full frame (FX).
- An electronic shutter that’s as good as any mechanical shutter we had in the DSLR era. (1/270 effective)
- A very natural looking viewfinder that doesn’t black out and displays continuous live frames unless you’re pushing down into really low light and long shutter speeds.
- A buffer that is infinite until the card fills (at least for JPEG and High efficiency raw files.
- Z6III
- 24mp, with a slight loss of dynamic range at base ISO up to the gain reset. Full frame (FX).
- An electronic shutter that is rolling enough to become visible at high motion speeds. (1/70 effective)
- An even better nature looking viewfinder, but is no longer displaying live frames above 8 fps mechanical, 15 fps electronic.
- A buffer that is 200 images (unless you’re using electronic shutter, where it can be infinite until the card fills).
- Zf
- 24mp. Full frame (FX).
- An electronic shutter that has a high degree of rolling. (1/20 effective)
- A very natural looking viewfinder, but which is no longer displaying live frames above about 8 fps.
- A maximum 200 image buffer.
- Z50II
- 20mp. APS-C frame (DX).
- An electronic shutter with visible rolling shutter. (1/41 effective)
- A slightly rougher viewfinder, and one that is no longer live starting about 6 fps.
- A buffer that is 200 images (both minimum and maximum)
The Zf introduces the oddity of a completely different set of controls (dials, and no user settings available), but other than that you have a pretty natural progression from top to bottom of the EXPEED7 camera line.
Many buy solely on point #1 (they want pixels and sensor size). Well, they'll pay the Pixel Tax to do so.
Personally, from a functional standpoint, I find that point #3 is the one that dictates which camera I use when. In other words, I prefer to use a Z8 (or Z9). The reason I’d use a Z6III or Z50II—I don’t like the dials-oriented Zf design—tends to have to do with packing/carrying size. I’ll give up #2 and #3 to make for a smaller, lighter kit at times. In fact, that’s the only reasons why I’d pick up my Z6III or Z50II over a Z8: I need to go smaller and/or lighter.
Some folk ask their version of the question I’m answering a different way, usually something like “is the Z50II autofocus system really as good as the Z9’s?” Yes, within the context of #1, #2, and #3.
Wait, what?
The Z50II autofocus suffers a bit by being DX: the photosites being looked at get less light because they’re a smaller area. While the Z50II photosites are effectively the same size as the Z8’s and Z9’s, the same size focus box in the viewfinder incorporates more such sites on a Z8 and Z9, thus has better discrimination. That information is delivered to the EXPEED7 chip more consistently in the Z8/Z9, too (#3).
The Zf, Z6III, and Z50II all suffer a bit in autofocus performance as you push frame rates way up, partly because of rolling shutter, partly because you’re no longer see a live view of the scene, but rather a slightly lagged slide show. Which means you can’t keep the camera as steady on a moving subject. The Z50II and Zf suffer the most, the Z6III is relatively good right up to the point where you try to extract every last frame out of its Release mode settings.
Ironically, the Z8/Z9 are the best camera for the amateur that wants “everything auto” but wants to push the boundaries of performance in frame rate. The Z50II is the camera that the highly disciplined pro will get more out of than most users. To give an analogy, the Z8/Z9 is like giving the amateur a big block V8 with automatic transmission, while the Z50II is more like a straight 4 with manual transmission. A professional driver in the straight 4 will likely still beat the amateur with the V8 on a tough road course. To put that one more way: if you know nothing about the Nikon system and I hand you a Z8 set to Auto-area AF with subject detection, I’ll get more keepers than you with a Z50II that I’m near frantically controlling.
Nikon’s progression here from Z50II up through Z9 is very impressive. And much more compelling than the more hodge-podge model progressions I see in the other mounts. While you might be able to find a feature here and there that is different between the Nikon models—where’s HEIF in the Z9, for instance, or sensor VR in the Z50II?—it’s pretty amazing how consistently deep and wide the feature set of all EXPEED7 generation cameras is. It appears that Nikon heard my (and your) complaints about limitations that were paternally imposed on the original Z6 and Z7.
So, how good is a Z50II compared to a Z6III? Or a Z6III compared to a Z8? Really good. However, in the key areas I outlined above, you will find clear differences, and those differences may be of importance to you. The Goldilocks solution is sort of the Z6III. But I’m impressed with what the US$910 Z50II does; I don’t know any other similarly priced camera that can match it when set and handled correctly.
Nikon gave you choices. Nikon’s not very good at marketing the differences between those choices, but I find them to be pretty clear choices that align very correctly to price, as the differences come primarily in key performance categories centered around frame rate and viewfinder.
Moreover, you can now scale that body performance with lens performance. For wildlife photography, for instance:
- Z50II with 28-400mm f/4-8 VR.
- Z6III with 180-600mm f/4.5-6.3 VR.
- Z8 with any of the exotics (e.g. from 400mm f/4.5 VR S to 800mm f/6.3 VR S).
Nicely done, Nikon. (Yes, I do praise them sometimes ;~)
New Zfc Styles Are Available in the US
Nikon today announced that the Zfc camera is now available in four limited edition Heralbony styles. Heralbony is a Japanese organization that works with challenging the perceptions the disabled, and these designs were picked from a licensed collection of original art created by neurodiverse artists.
These optional Zfc styles are now available in limited release in the US for US$1199.95 (includes kit lens) at the NikonUSA store.
From left to right, the designs are “Cone Flower” by Masahiro Fukui, “Yurinoyoakeri ” by Masaharu Honda, “Samba” by Momoko Eguchi, and “Joyful Time” by Teppei Kasahara.