I've been doing more thinking about Nikon's development strategy lately, partly because I'm trying to figure out exactly where the DSLR-less market will start (we'll likely be there sometime in 2025).
Nikon's "every four years" strategy with its Big Tech changes is, I think, starting to change. Just as a reminder:
- D1 — 1999
- D2 — 2003
- D3 — 2007
- D4 — 2012 (delayed due to earthquake, tsunami, floods)
- D5 — 2016
- Z9 — 2021
Yes, that's means we'd be due for EXPEED8 or some additional new technology sometime next year.
But there's a different pattern going on now, for sure. In the DSLR-era, product cycles tended to be more like two years for mid-level cameras, and as short as one year for consumer-oriented cameras. If you've been paying attention, that's not how the Z System is developing. True, the Z6 II and Z7 II came about two years after the originals, but the Z6 III extended the cycle to almost four years. Likewise, the Z5 is four years old, and the Z50 is over four years old. Unless a Z7 III shows up sometime soon, that model too will be over four years on the market.
Nikon's not alone in this cycle slowing. Various products in the Canon, Fujifilm, and Sony lines are showing the same longer life cycles, with four years becoming a new norm.
Here's the underlying problem: DSLRs will go (mostly) extinct in 2025, partly due to new EU regulations they don't meet, partly due to their long tail towards volume oblivion. However, in order for mirrorless to make ILC (interchangeable lens camera) volume just stay the same as it was in 2023, mirrorless has to pick up and additional ~600k units this year, and the same in 2025.
Where does such additional volume come from? One could hypothesize:
- New users in the market (though they're likely to enter low, not high)
- Higher DSLR-to-mirrorless replacement buying
- Better marketing and availability (i.e. more places to buy)
- A rapidly growing world economy
- Compelling new tech that moves a new iteration far ahead of the old
Sony's sudden attention to "C" models (e.g. A7C, A7CR, and even the video-oriented ZV and FX ones) appears to be chasing #1.
#2 has already peaked if my surveys are accurate.
#3 and #4 aren't happening.
Which leaves us the last: new technologies that are compelling. It's that last word that's the problem. Many of the things that are happening in model updates are iterative now. Moreover, sometimes a step forward—stacked image sensors, for example—results in a step backward (lower base ISO dynamic range). I think it's getting harder to find and fully develop those compelling bits. I'd be worried if I were leading development teams and had the overall forced strategy that I had to find those compelling things every four years in what is otherwise a mature product.
To Nikon's credit, they've continued to do that at the top end of their lineup. However, given the current situation, I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't already backed away from their "every four years" clock. Such a clock would say that we should see a big new technology appear in 2024, and I don't believe it will. The only rumbling I've heard is about a super fast camera, call it the Z9h, but the problem here is that with the 2024 Olympics already happening, it's too late for such a product to have dramatic impact on the individuals and agencies that might welcome it. The 2026 Olympics and World Cup are the next big events that a top-end camera needs to be ready for, and I'm not sure that just raw speed is enough to move the bar.
Another interesting thing I noticed while contemplating all the available data is that every Z System camera has been introduced in the same six month window (May through October). You might also conclude from the small sample so far that one model a year is the minimum and two is the more likely scenario. Thus, between now and October we will probably see another Z camera. Yes, I know there are two registered but undisclosed models in the government RF testing roll call, but I believe one of those is not a Z-mount camera (I'll yet you ponder what that might be).
But here's the thing: of the last five Nikon camera introductions, four of them have been "new models" (Z9, Z30, Z8, Zf, with the Z6 III being the only iterated one). That pattern can't possibly continue (80% new model likelihood). Given that we have an unknown camera registered with government agencies for meeting RF requirements but not yet released, one would have to conclude that (a) it has to be a Z7 III or Z50 II (or perhaps Z70 to replace it); or (b) Nikon will once again expand its line with a new model.
To me, it's looking like the new Nikon development pattern may be something that is stretched longer than we've seen before (at least in the digital era):
- Top end new technology every six to eight years
- Middle updated every four years with the trickle down tech
- Bottom not updated regularly, but milked to exhaustion
Given Nikon's statements that they are no longer pursuing market share but rather targeting higher-end customers, that last bullet isn't a problem. Meanwhile, firmware updates have mitigated much of the problem with the first bullet, and we still have pending things that can be added to the Z8 and Z9.
So it's that middle bullet that's the most interesting one. Except for dynamic range at base ISO up to the gain change, everything about a Z6 III makes it a compelling update to both Z6 and Z6 II users, as well as a potential upgrade for Z5 users (the Zf is probably the more compelling upgrade for that latter group, though) as well as Z50 users looking to move up to full frame.
Meanwhile, some Z7 and Z7 II owners should have been enticed by the Z8, though it's a price step upward. But it's that group—Z7 and Z7 II owners—that is least served by what Nikon's done recently. I don't think a partial stacked sensor makes sense here, nor does just adding an EXPEED7 chip, so I'm really curious to see how Nikon approaches this user. Will we see yet another new model?
Finally, there's the bridge-to-video that now has to be built. With Nikon's acquisition of RED there's a conspicuous gap between the RED lineup and the Z lineup: a middle ground video-focused Z-mount camera, if you will. It's too soon to expect that camera, but I believe it has to show up in 2026, along with the RED cameras shifting to the Z mount, or else Nikon will miss an opportunity. RED is clearly nimble enough to make that shift quickly; is Nikon?
