I mentioned it at the end of my Z5II introduction, but one of the issues for Nikon in their current fiscal year is that they've played out their hand pretty well in filling a basic lens set for the Z System (and faster than Sony did after they introduced the original A7). The problem for Nikkors is now shifting into a more treacherous terrain: finding traction in the margins.
Just as a reminder, we have the following in the full frame (FX) line:
- f/1.2 primes (35mm, 50mm, 85mm)
- f/1.4 primes (35mm, 50mm)
- f/1.8 primes (20mm, 24mm, 35mm, 50mm, 85mm, 135mm)
- slower primes (26mm, 40mm, 50mm, 105mm)
- telephoto primes (two 400mm, 600mm, 800mm)
- f/2.8 zooms (two sets: 14-24mm, 24-70mm, 70-200mm, and 17-28mm, 28-75mm, 70-180mm)
- f/4 zooms (14-30mm, 24-70mm, 24-120mm)
- variable zooms (24-50mm, 24-200mm, 28-400mm, 100-400mm, 180-600mm)
That's 34 solid lenses that do a good job of giving us a good basic coverage. Yes, Nikon needs to "fill" a few holes in the above (e.g. 85mm f/1.4, 105mm f/1.8, 70-200mm f/4 or similar). I suspect we'll see those holes filled in the coming two years.
Which brings us to the clear holes in the Nikkor Z-mount set:
- Wide angle primes below 20mm (e.g. 14mm)
- Fisheye (circular and full frame, e.g. 8-15mm)
- Faster zooms (no f/2 zooms yet)
- Short, fast telephoto (e.g. 180-300mm f/2.8)
- Telephoto gap filling and extension (e.g. 500mm, and 1200mm)
- Modern tilt/shift, perhaps with AF
Here's the dilemma: each new Nikkor lens needs to have a big enough market size potential to justify the R&D and production work for it. Moreover, as we customers all fill up our lens cupboard, demand for many of the existing lenses goes down (unless Nikon can drive significantly more new customers to the Z-mount).
It seems clear to me that Nikon miscalculated lens adoption. For quite some time they were suggesting that they'd achieve a 2x attach rate (number of lenses bought per camera), but in reality, they really haven't budged from the 1.6x attach rate that is seen pretty much industry wide.
The influx of inexpensive but adequate Chinese primes is not helping things for Nikon, by any means. Once China starts producing zoom lenses, there's a fair chance that the CIPA-stated attach rate starts to go down, as China is not part of CIPA reporting while Nikon is. The bottom line is that whatever lens Nikon produces next has to provide some real traction in a market that is getting slippery.
You and I both have lenses we want Nikon to make, I'm sure. When I write about what Nikkors should be made, I always get a plethora of suggestions that fill your specific need. Today, however, I'm going to ask you to do something different: if you're going to write me about Missing Nikkors, what I want you to do is suggest the one lens that you feel is both missing and would sell well enough overall to drive lens sales upward. Be the Product Manager: find the product that Nikon needs to make that gives them the most boost.
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Bonus coverage: One surprise to me with the Z5II announcement is that Nikon did no lens leveraging with it. By that, I mean this: what would have happened if Nikon announced a 14-24mm f/3.5-5.6 and 50-135mm f/4-6.3 compact zoom lens set with the camera? Coupled with the existing 24-50mm f/4-6.3, that would provide a 14-135mm three lens set of very small size and perfectly good capability for a more consumer-oriented 24mp camera such as the Z5II.
I know that Nikon has looked at producing a variable aperture wide angle and telephoto zoom to go with the mid-range one. I heard they were really close to producing the wide angle lens. But at the moment we're in a lens drought. Nikon clearly has the capacity to produce eight new lenses a year, and has proven that time and again. Last year: four new lenses. One quarter of the way through this year: one new lens, suggested four again.
I have to believe that some of the lens drought we're currently in has to do with Nikon renovating its Tochigi, Japan factory. Not scheduled to complete until 2027, the change at Tochigi involves demolishing over a dozen scattered buildings and consolidating their work into two new ones. This implies that other facilities will have to lead the way on new lenses for the time being. Design in Japan, manufacture in Thailand (or China, et.al.) adds time and difficulty to getting new lenses out the door.
