Last week I pointed out Nikon’s successful growth in mirrorless since introduction. But hidden in those numbers are a potential problem. Let’s first recap what those (rounded) numbers were:
- 2018 — 190,000 units
- 2019 — 320,000, gain of 130,000
- 2020 — 222,914 (pandemic year)
- 2021 — 290,000 (supply chain issues out of the pandemic)
- 2022 — 530,000, gain of 240,000
- 2023 — 630,000, gain of 100,000
- 2024 — 760,000, gain of 130,000
Those “gain of” numbers in that list are Nikon’s new problem: exactly what can they do to sell an additional 100,000+ units in 2025 (and again in 2026, 2027, et.al.)? From early results, it looks like 2025 should be close to another six figure unit gain, though the tariff situation in the US is eroding that potential now. The two pieces generating the 2025 gain will probably be the Z5II launch, another late year launch, plus firmware updates making cameras better and more desirable.
Nikon’s not likely to keep the firmware furnace fired up in 2026, as that should be a new technology launch year for them. So the question is whether or not a Z9II launch vehicle could generate the six-figure gain they desire by itself, or what needs to be launched with or after it in 2026 to meet their expectations?
Prior to the pandemic I was writing that the “bottom” of the ILC market was probably 6m units, but that it could end up as low as 4m. The actual “bottom” turned out to be 5.3m units. For the last five years the actual mirrorless units shipped out of Japan have been:
- 2.9m
- 3.1m
- 4.1m
- 4.8m
- 5.6m
However, the DSLR units have been plummeting during this same period (now less than 1m), meaning that the overall ILC growth from market bottom to the end of 2024 is about 25% across the last three years. Canon and Nikon have been basically giving up DSLR volume for mirrorless volume, which has made the mirrorless gains look great, but effectively, the combined ILC unit market volume isn’t changing all that much.
For the Z System to continue to grow faster than the mirrorless market, Nikon needs 100,000+ additional units a year, probably substantially more. That implies more cameras or a faster upgrade cycle.
