We're still nearly three weeks away from final cameras being shipped to customers, but it's been interesting to listen to the chatter behind the scenes. The short version: Nikon seems to feel like the ZR is going to begin selling at lower demand levels than they expected.
If you talk to dealers, they'll tell you that there's definitely demand for the camera, though it's coming from a subset of the customer base. Indeed, a subset that most camera dealers don't tend to be very directly involved with: videographers. Those same dealers are being asked to order more ZRs to match what they did with other Z releases, but are resistant to doing that.
Nikon has been insistent about marketing the ZR solely as a Baby RED. In particular, they keep targeting two groups: creators/influencers doing video, and RED and RED adjacent users. They've trained their reps to talk about and seek conversions from the Canon C and Sony FX crowd, even though those reps have no experience with that market. Nikon itself has no recent history with marketing to their target groups for video only, so it's all new to those doing all the marketing in the Nikon subsidiaries. Moreover, there seems to be a Build It and They Will Come attitude going on, and that ignores one big thing: lenses.
Nikon simply doesn't have the lens set the ZR demands. They Haven't Built It, Some Might not Come.
I can point to examples where the current lens set works, true. For instance, I want a ZR for wildlife video. Lenses such as the 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S have a wealth of controls that the ZR firmware can all take full advantage of, and the result should be better (at least up to 6K) than I can get using a RED. (Why? Because the RED autofocus isn't state of the art but the ZR's is, and the RED bodies don't have some of the manual focus assist bits, such as MF subject detection, that the ZR does.)
But given the creator/influencer group that Nikon is targeting, the lens choice is...Bueller?...Bueller?
About the only lens that I could come up with that might appeal to this group is the 14-30mm f/4 S. That and a 50mm f/1.4 would be an okay basic set. But remember, Nikon is trying to pry loose Sony FX users, and just look at the lens choices an FX3 user has and it's no contest, Sony wins.
However, the real marketing failure here is one I mentioned in my ZR introduction talk at Creative Photo Academy: Nikon doesn't want anyone talking about whether the ZR is a good camera for still photography. Yet they seem to be expecting the usual hybrid (stills/video) level of sales for this new model!
Every time I've asked about or mentioned still use of the ZR, Nikon has basically said "we don't want to talk about that, and we don't want you to talk about that, either." In other words, Nikon appears to be all-in on the video aspect of the camera. It's a Baby RED and nothing more.
And boy is Nikon wrong. Having watched so many of those same creators/influencers they target ignore the built-in viewfinder of their camera (e.g. X100VI) and just compose from the rear LCD, you'd think a bigger, brighter, HDR capable LCD might be of interest to that group, even when they take still images (and they all take stills as well as videos). But no, Nikon doesn't want to talk about that, despite the fact that the full PHOTO SHOOTING menu and options are present on a ZR. You can even see it in Nikon's product design: the camera displays a big RED confirmation when you move the switch to video!
Moreover, there's this size thing Nikon doesn't really mention. With a 26mm f/2.8, 28mm f/2.8, 40mm f/2, 24-50mm f/4-6.3, 50mm f/2.8 MC, and even that 14-30mm f/4 S, what you're carrying in ZR+lens is an incredibly capable full frame camera in a remarkably compact camera like size. You really have to hold and use these combos to appreciate this. I'm not alone in thinking that the ZR with the right lens will be an awesome street and travel photography camera. But Nikon doesn't want me or others mentioning that.
It's not just lenses but product marketing decisions that are tripping up Nikon. Consider this: I'm a creator. I take stills and now lots of videos. I bought a ZR and Nikon is push, push, pushing me to use the RED LUTs. Great. Now, on the still side, where are the Nikon Imaging Cloud Recipes for the RED LUTs so that I can match my stills against my video? They don't exist, because Nikon doesn't believe the ZR should be used for still photography.
Here's my contention: Nikon won't sell as many ZR's initially as they hoped because: (1) they're marketing for the first time only to video users they haven't marketed to before; and (2) they're ignoring the still user that would 100% appreciate the camera.
Here's my prediction: the ZR will be in stock quickly—especially given that the kit is likely to ship first—and not seem like a volume winner initially. But it's going to be a "sleeper camera" that picks up users over time. With the right marketing and lens availability the ZR could have been the hottest camera on the market. Instead, the heat management built into it seems to have also cooled Nikon's marketing team.
At IBC Nikon Imaging's top exec acknowledged something I had previously been aware of: the ZR development was fully in process before Nikon bought RED. I believe this was what I sometimes referred to as the Z3 (e.g. a full frame equivalent to the Z30). I suspect that if Nikon hadn't bought RED and come down with the "cinema bug," the Z3 would have been marketed akin to the Z30: a creator's camera that bridged stills and video, with an emphasis on improved pro-level video from the Z9 generation goodies.
The RED acquisition has Nikon doing too much posturing in video, without a lot to posture behind. We've got one Cinema lens, a couple of Hollywood-level cameras (Komodo/Raptor), and now this bridge in between the full hybrid line and the full Hollywood line. But with Nikon marketing the ZR as a Junior Hollywood camera, it's not really the bridge between lines. This is a mistake that will hurt initial sales, though it does allow Nikon to trumpet their RED acquisition as having a payoff.
I'll stick with my prediction: ultimately the ZR will sell better once still users learn to appreciate it (which is getting no help from the Nikon side).
