NikonUSA finally figured out their new rebate program, announcing it to dealers the day before it went into effect (good through June 1st). Things aren't quite as bad as was feared, but still a little bit telling.
- Z30 — US$150 off
- Z50 — US$100 off
- Zfc — US$100 off
- Zf — US$200 off
- Z5 — US$400 off
- Z6II — US$200 off
- Z6III — US$400 off
- Z7II — US$500 off
- Z8 — US$500 off
- Z9 — US$500 off
Body with no discount: Z50II
The Z8 and Z9 discounts are easy to explain: Nikon has a large margin on those products, and NikonUSA has available stock without having to resupply. The Z6III is likely discounted so much because demand didn't quite meet the supply brought into the country and NikonUSA is trying to rebalance; that's especially needed because the Z5II comes so close to a Z6III in most respects, at a much lower suggested list price. The Zf discount is probably to put it more squarely between the other 24mp options.
As I've reported elsewhere, Nikon corporate appears to have targeted the start of June for their full response to the tariff situation; I'm told there will be price increases, but it's not yet known how much and on which products, let alone whether this will be worldwide or just US pricing. I suspect that we'll learn more about this at Nikon's investor relations meeting on May 8th. Nikon just announced that it is taking a one-time write-down of ¥7.9b (US$55m) in the Precision Equipment Business that wasn't previously anticipated, as well as the fact that Imaging had an underperformance to estimates in the now closed fiscal year.
There's a lot of checking and counting of beans going on in Tokyo at the moment, including estimates about future beans. Canon has already announced they'll be increasing prices, but I expect all the camera makers will have some form of price adjustments going forward.
Meanwhile, a number of Z-mount lenses have rebates:
- 14-24mm f/2.8 S (US$500)
- 14-24mm f/4 S (US$200)
- 24-70mm f/2.8 S (US$400)
- 24-120mm f/4 S (US$100; more with body purchase)
- 26mm f/2.8 (US$100)
- 28mm f/2.8 (US$70)
- 28-75mm f/2.8 (US$200)
- 40mm f/2 (US$100)
- 50mm f/1.2 S (US$200)
- 50mm f/1.8 S (US$100)
- 70-200mm f/2.8 VR S (US$500)
- 100-400mm f/4.5-5.6 VR S (US$400)
- 105mm f/2.8 VR S (US$200)
- 135mm f/1.8 S Plena (US$200)
- 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S (US$1000)
- 600mm f/4 TC VR S (US$1500)
- 12-28mm f/3.5-5.6 PZ VR DX (US$60)
Note that the only China-made lens in the list is the 28-75mm f/2.8, which I don't believe sold well in the US and is probably in inventory in enough numbers to justify the discount. All the rest of these lenses are Japan or Thailand manufactured.
As I wrote in a previous article, if you want a 180-600mm f/5.6-6.3 VR, 400mm f/4.5 VR S, 600mm f/6.3 PF VR S, or 800mm f/6.3 PF VR S any time soon, you'd best buy from existing stock now before they're gone. It's highly unclear what will happen with the next batch of those lenses coming into the US, as they're all made in China.
My overall assessment is that NikonUSA basically kicked the can a little further down the road when it comes to pricing, probably to exhaust existing inventories prior to the fiscal quarter ending. What happens next is pure speculation, as my sources tell me that Nikon, and by extension, NikonUSA, hasn't come to a full decision yet.
I wouldn't be surprised though if any of the following were announced (or at least intimated at) at the May investor's meeting: (1) discontinuation of DSLR products (see dslrbodies for an article on that); (2) Z System repricing, particularly in the US; (3) possible discontinuation (or suspension) of some Z products (likely older bodies or China-made lenses).
