We're now six years into the Z System, and a number of cameras have had updates. One thing that gets mentioned almost as a throwaway after each update are statements such as "not much of an upgrade" versus "upgrade makes a big difference."
It's worth taking a moment to consider what Nikon has done in moving the Z System forward, and being more specific about the different progress that has been made for each model. Let's take it camera by camera, starting with DX:
- Z50 to Z50II — This was a massive change, and deserves more respect. The Z50 went from being a somewhat likable, feature limited camera with a lot of small annoyances, to being the most well-rounded and performance-capable camera anywhere near its price point. Customization and controllability got better, focus got way better, video got better, frame rates got better, features got better and extended, plus even the small tweaks to what's shown in the EVF help the camera, too. When Nikon does a job like this, they should be applauded at the standing ovation level, not just a bunch "yeah, buts..." Big win.
- Zfc — No changes yet.
- Z30 — No changes yet. One could say that the Z30 was a Z50 with a very modest update and an EVF removal. Now that we have the Z50II you can see just how modest the Z30 update really was: extremely. No applause necessary ;~).
Up until the Z50II it seemed that Nikon wasn't all that serious about DX. The Z50 was a low-end placeholder, the Zfc was a way to disguise almost no upgrade work being done by putting that in a legacy-design body and creating an update that catered to nostalgia. The Z30 was really a way of disguising that same modest update as something that would instead appeal to "creators." The Z50II seems to put that to an end, unless by creator you mean someone who never uses an EVF and just wants a smaller camera (and is willing to suffer considerable consequences in doing so).
Personally, I don't think the Zfc needs an update, but a Z30II incorporating the Z50II changes would be a very useful product, particularly at the price point. The problem for DX now is starting to be the one we've had since 2007: it needs more lens support. I don't care whether that comes from Nikon or third parties, but particularly with zoom lenses we have a number of missing lens components now.
Moving to FX we see:
- Z5 — No changes yet, though pretty clear indications that it is next for the EXPEED7 makeover (see next article). Will Nikon do what they did with the Z50II? Let's hope so. But given that the Z5 lives at the bottom of the FX price chain and really needs to sell at US$1000 at times, the temptation for Nikon to strip something down will be high.
- Z6 to Z6II — While the list of changes was actually fairly long in this update—I identified over two dozen in my review—most of these had minimal impact on how good a camera it was. Quite a few seemed to be just addressing something that didn't get done in the original model, as opposed to truly extending performance or feature set. This led to a lot of grumbling and dissatisfaction among the Zsumers, though most eventually came to the conclusion that the Z6II was indeed preferred over the Z6; it just wasn't a dollar-worthy upgrade.
- Z6II to Z6III — A substantive change that improves virtually all the questionable aspects of the II model. That's "marred" by one small thing: some modest reduction of dynamic range at the lower ISO levels. Some might also include a bit of rolling shutter in electronic shutter mode, but both of these things are not likely to be a detriment to someone who understands the camera well. The Z9-level features really do improve the overall operability of this model to the point where it's probably all the camera that most people really need. Major win.
- Z7 to Z7II — Same thing as with the Z6: no performance or feature set extension that made a clear difference, but a lot of small things that made for a slightly better camera. Not worth paying for the upgrade, but it did make those coming into the system for the first time to a Z7II feel a little better about it.
- Z8 — Surprisingly, firmware 2.00 made changes that were well worth getting, and it did it for free. (I'll deal with that more in the Z9 section, next.) Significant win.
- Z9 — Nikon's biggest surprise of all. When you think about it, the Z9 basically "fixed" all the Z7/Z7II complaints in spades with its initial iteration. I took a preproduction Z9 and a Z7II to Africa and almost never picked up the Z7II, as it was such a downgrade. So some might say the Z9 was a pro-level, massive upgrade of the Z7II. But wait, there's more. As in firmware 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, and eventually 5.0. Every one of those major number upgrades simply made an already excellent camera clearly better. What became evident over time is that the Z9 was actually rushed to market (yet still beat the competition up), even though the engineering team still had significant work left to do on it, which they eventually completed. Funny thing is, I don't think they're done, though I now expect firmware 6.0 will more likely be the Z9II. Big win.
- Zf — A substantive update to the Zfc ;~). One reason why I don't have strong hopes for a ZfcII any time soon is that the Zf was really the update. Not only did the Zf get the Z9-initiated EXPEED7 goodies, but there are small differences to how Nikon tackled the legacy body ideas, too. Coupled with a better FX sensor and EVF and all that entails, the Zf became the ultimate retro-style camera, and I don't think Nikon needs two of those. Significant win.
Looking back at Nikon's whole mirrorless history, it now seems clear that there were three turning points: (1) Nikon 1 pioneering on-sensor PDAF and WYSIWIG EVF; (2) Z6/Z7 generation maturing the Nikon 1 technologies into the mainstream ILC market; and (3) EXPEED7 then pushing Nikon's in-camera capabilities to new abilities and extremes. No fourth turning point is on the radar at the moment, but given that there are usually long periods before each major shift, that's not surprising. That actually describes Nikon engineering's modus operandi over many decades: every four or eight years deploy clearly new technology at the top, then work it down through the lineup.
Some are predicting EXPEED8 is on the near horizon (because EXPEED7 is four years old). I'm not so sure about that as it would be a huge R&D investment right on the heels of EXPEED7, and that's not very Nikon-like. My expectations would instead be that they instead turn to a helper chip, not a new base processor. We've already seen that idea from Sony with their AI processing unit. Moreover, the split data stream Z8/Z9 cameras should be well suited to multi-chip upgrades. Which has me predicting an add-on chip for the Z8/Z9 updates when we get them, and then EXPEED8 integrating that and more for the eventual other model updates. But I could be wrong; maybe Nikon saw a need to push EXPEED updates faster. The reason why I doubt this, though, is that they haven't yet taken full advantage of EXPEED7's capabilities.
As I write this, the "un-upgraded" models are: Zfc, Z30, Z5, and Z7II. I expect the Z5II shortly, leaving Nikon with only three un-upgraded models (the Z8 and Z9 were upgraded via firmware). And to my overall point, we've gotten three substantive upgrades this round already: Z50 to Z50II, Zfc to Zf, and Z6II to Z6III. Nikon's current lineup is pretty strong at the moment, and only going to get stronger.
