It’s been four months since our last Z camera introduction. Thus, the rumors and conjectures are flying again. My you’re an impatient lot. I'm seeing swirling and near viral rumors about potential Z30II, ZfcII, Z7III, Z9II, Zv, and even ZfR models.
While most of the current rumors are not credible, the one that I most believe and is likely to be the next Z System camera revolves around the Z5. Now approaching its fifth birthday, the Z5 has been a solid performer for Nikon, and needs to continue to cement the bottom of the full frame lineup for as long as possible. One important thing to note, the Z5 uses the front-side illumination (FSI) image sensor that’s now thirteen years old, and not any of the more current back-side illumination (BSI) 24mp sensors (Z6II, Zf, Z6III).
Since Nikon has worked its way mostly down from the top in introducing EXPEED7—Z9, Z8, Zf, Z6III, Z50II—it stands to reason that they’ll continue this practice and eventually address the entire permanent lineup, including the Z5. The tricky part for Nikon is that with six FX cameras and three DX cameras, they have a bit of a logjam happening where they need to be careful to keep both the pricing and feature sets rationalized.
For a Z5II to work in the current lineup and keep its price point intact, it needs to be BSI 24mp, EXPEED7, and nothing more. It’s not likely to have a new shutter, new EVF, move to CFe cards, or other Z6III-like additions. It’s possible that Nikon might move from a tilting Rear LCD to an articulating one, but I doubt that they would up the dot count because of cost. A Z5II is almost certainly going to be mostly a Zf’s internal digital bits in a Z5-like body. And that requires BSI 24mp and EXPEED7.
I was a bit surprised when the original Z5 was announced. The only real cripple points from a Z6 were (1) the FSI instead of BSI sensor, (2) a 1.04m dot Rear LCD, about half the capability of the Z6’s, (3) lower frame rates, and (4) a less sophisticated shutter. Video specs were lower primarily due to the image sensor. For the most part, you got most of a Z6 at a lower price when you bought a Z5.
That’s going to be the mantra for the Z5II, too: the Z5II should be most of a Z6III at a lower price.
Again, Nikon has a pretty clear way to accomplish that. The Zf image sensor and EXPEED7 and all that brings “for free” would be the center of all Z5II improvements. On the other hand, Nikon would likely stay with the current shutter, Rear LCD, EVF, SD cards, and so on. Perhaps they'd change the body build to match the Z6III design in order to conform with the new manufacturing processes they have in place. I’d bet we get a Picture Controls button on the top plate, just like the Z50II, but no other new controls. Controls would also move to the current Z9-generation locations (which is really just button name swaps).
Anything more than the previous paragraph starts to become a problem. First, Nikon really wants to continue to sell Zf’s and Z6III’s, so a Z5II can’t encroach too much in terms of build quality, features, and performance of either. But more important, the original Z5 has been holding down the “best entry level full frame camera” position for quite some time. So it really has to stay at the US$1499 suggested list price, and it needs to be able to withstand deep discounting over time. Adding too much to a Z5II would be counterproductive to both those things.
The good news is that the Zf image sensor and EXPEED7, all by themselves, would give a Z5II better video, a larger and better feature set, and most importantly, better autofocus. The thing I’ll be looking at is whether Nikon prunes some EXPEED7 features in a Z5II, such as Pixel-shift shooting. I hope they don’t. It was the fact that Nikon didn’t neuter Z6 features in the original Z5 that made it a hit.
Which brings us to the “when” question. This is a little tricky, as Nikon’s fiscal year ends on March 31st, and they’re going to want something new shipping in their upcoming first quarter to jumpstart their next fiscal year sales. Nikon tends to report their fiscal year results in the second week of May, and they prefer to introduce any new products during that time frame in conjunction with the financial meetings, as it allows them to not only wrangle the business press for more time together, but also helps them clarify where their next fiscal year predictions are coming from. So, my original bet on the Z5II launch point was “sometime in early-to-mid May.” That would also give NikonUSA a chance to have big presentations and finished cameras ready to sell at B&H’s Bild show the following month.
However, as the rumor sites are now suggesting, I too am hearing that Nikon may have moved up the Z5II target date to an April launch (likely late April). Nikon is going to want to get some significant new product sales in before their next Q1 ends June 30th, so if the Z5II is indeed next, it needs to ship in May. Add in a lens or two—I’m hearing companions to the 24-50mm f/4-6.3 compact zoom are coming, and that would fit nicely with the Z5II though I don't know if they'll be announced at the same time—and Nikon would get a jump start on their next year’s total sales growth.
So in answer to this article’s headline: Z5II, and sometime this spring. Maybe a supporting lens or two.
