Hey, a bonus article!
I keep hearing from a lot of people that a Z5II must be next, as it's the next logical first generation domino to be knocked over. I don't know if a Z5II is or isn't coming, but plenty of people do.
The Z5 is Nikon's entry-level FX model. At US$1000 on sale (as it is now), that's quite a bit of camera for not very much price; it's actually a great introduction to the Nikon Z System. The primary ways the Z5 differs from the Zf and Z6III, the next models up the line, are due to sensor and processor performance, not feature set. However, folk are saying "just drop in the sensor from the Z6II and add the articulating Rear LCD." This misses a point. The reason that the Z5 is US$1000 is that it's using the same sensor that the D600 did back in 2012. That's twelve years of body sales that have reduced the need to recapture R&D costs down to essentially zilch. Using any newer sensor would increase Nikon's costs, and they'll already be going up due to EXPEED7 itself.
Meanwhile, there isn't any clear way to de-content the Z5II without raising screams. About the only significant cost-creating part (other than the image sensor) that the Z5 dropped from the Z6 was the top LCD. What are you going to take out of a Z5II to keep its costs down? The sensor VR mechanism? Nope. A lower-end EVF? Not likely. The headphone jack? Not much of a cost savings.
The Zf is currently US$1800 and the Z6III is US$2300. The Z5's list price is US$1400, which slots decently under those other two 24mp cameras. But without de-contenting the Z5 in some way you'd undercut the Zf for sure by putting the same image sensor and EXPEED7 in a Z5II, and you'd even get similar performance to even the much more expensive Z6III. Thus, a Z5II as everyone seems to be defining it seems like it would be taking money off the table. Can a Z5II really sell enough volume at US$1500 (my guess at a new list price) to mitigate the loss of US$1800 and US$2300 sales? In today's market, I'd say no. And if the Zf and Z6III return to list price after the holiday, I'd double down on that bet.
My point would be that a Z5II needs to remain a clear, price competitive way to enter the Nikon Z FX world. It isn't a camera by which you'd want to make your main money from Z5 users upgrading to a Z5II; you really want those users to upgrade to the 6 level or higher.
That said, I do now think that Nikon's likely to introduce a Z5II at some point, and probably in 2025. The original camera needs better focus to compete with the Canon R8, for example. The unanswered question is which image sensor would be feeding the EXPEED7 processor in any eventual Z5II. Given that the competition has 4K/60P and 6 fps mechanical shutter with 40 fps electronic, the Z5II will need to up its game at the image sensor, which the Z6II image sensor would provide. Thus, even though I believe that's problematic, it may be the only option for Nikon should they decide that the Z5 needs to join the Z9 generation.
