Every year this time I get the questions about when Nikon will release their next camera (or lens). That’s because the Z-mount customer has been conditioned to expect fall releases. The over/under for camera releases by Nikon is August. In the past they’ve released six cameras in the April to July time frame, and seven in the September to November time frame (the original Z6/Z7 were announced exactly in between, in August.
The queries are a bit stronger this year, as Nikon hasn’t introduced any camera since the ZR last September, and no still-oriented camera since the Z5II in April 2025. Moreover, the Z9II is overdue, as it missed the usual four-year pro update cycle.
As I’ve been writing all year, I don’t expect Nikon’s next camera announcement until after Labor Day. And now we see a hint of that in the Nikon Q1 financials just released: “downward revision to the 1H sales plan” is a clear clue that nothing sigificant gets released in the July through September quarter (e.g. even a September announcement may not ship to customers until October). It’s not a big thing, but Nikon took out about 50,000 camera units from their fiscal year forecast, which is about what I’d expect from not shipping anything new in Q2 (July to September). Essentially, delays in new product introductions seem to be pushing volume into the next fiscal year, as lenses also saw a 50,000 unit reduction.
Nikon is claiming these reductions are also due to overall digital camera sales declines in China (marketwide, not just Nikon), but typically new product introductions tend to goose the numbers about the way Nikon originally forecast and is now discounting. Given Nikon’s new fiscal volume estimates, I’d have to guess that one new camera ships in the Q3 time frame (October to December), and another in Q4 (January to March, 2027). That’s pretty much onboard with what I’ve been hearing and writing about all year: one fall intro, one late 26/early 27 intro.
One final note on the Q1 numbers: imaging products inventories has been slow growing (about 6% over the past year). Nothing worrisome, but if that continues I’d expect to see more aggressive discounting in the Christmas selling season.