For quite some time my general advice to those on the Upgrade Train has been to skip generations. That's tricky with the Z System, as the only camera for which that really applies right now is the Z6!
Z6 user: yes, a Z6 III is a really solid upgrade choice. Virtually every aspect of the camera has been improved (with the exception of a drop in dynamic range at lower ISO values). And not just improved, but improved (and expanded) by a lot.
Z6 II user: maybe the Z6 III is a reasonable upgrade choice. That all depends upon how much you value three things: better autofocus, better continuous frame capabilities, and viewfinder quality.
Nikon's missing updates (Z50 II, Z5 II, Z7 III) are starting to cause some concern, as we now have cameras that are five, four, and four years old respectively. In addition, exactly where the eventual Z8 and Z9 updates land, as well as what Nikon will do in the future with the dials cameras (Zf, Zfc), is adding additional questioning by those that bought into the Z lineup.
The past four years have been one or two new model years:
- 2021 — Zfc, Z9
- 2022 — Z30
- 2023 — Z8, Zf
- 2024 — Z6 III
Five of those were "new" models, and only one was an update. It seems to me that this needs to flip, right? Nikon needs to find compelling reasons for an existing Z user to move up (e.g. Z30 or Z50 user to Z70 or FX) or to upgrade (e.g. Zfc, Zf, Z5, Z7 II, Z8, or Z9 to what?). 2025 seems to be the year we will get our first real hints at what the strategy really is (or if there is even a strategy).
Meanwhile, our lens road map was lost at the last GAS stop, and there's no Google Map to replace it. We'll soon reach the "50 lens" mark that Nikon executives talked about, so what happens after that? And why is 2024 so quiet for lenses (and also, why all at a more consumer level)?
- 2018 — 3 lenses
- 2019 — 7 lenses
- 2020 — 6 lenses
- 2021 — 9 lenses
- 2022 — 5 lenses
- 2023 — 8 lenses
- 2024 — 3 lenses
At the moment at least, it seems to me that Nikon's 2024 holiday strategy is not at all an "upgrade" strategy. Unless, of course, you're still a DSLR user. The problem with that, of course, is that Nikon will be trying to close out sales of the DSLRs during this season, so they'll be competing with themselves in a way that isn't long-term productive.
I usually try to give some buying advice going into the big holiday shopping season, but right now it appears that this just boils down to:
- DSLR users should consider moving to the Z System. But if you haven't already, you're going to be hard to convince.
- Z5 or Z6 owners should consider the Zf or Z6 III. And yet, for casual one-frame-at-a-time work, that might not be a particularly useful upgrade.
- Everyone else should just buy some lenses. DX users probably don't have any more to buy. FX users now have to pick from a lot of increasingly overlapping choices. Or you could get Chinese take out (obvious humor point deleted as being ethnically stereotyped).
Myself? I still need to pick up the two f/1.4 primes for testing, but Nikon is not really on my list to Santa this year. Your list may vary.
Funny thing is, I hear through the grapevine that Nikon is wondering why their sales seem to have gone down after the initial Z6 III rush. Well, simple: Nikon didn't address the viral "worse dynamic range" reports from the influencers, and other than the DSLR-to-Z and Z6 to Z6 III upgraders—some of which went with a Zf—Nikon hasn't given the others much to lust over.
If that grapevine is correct, I expect some better discounting this holiday season from NikonUSA. It may be the only way they meet their sales expectations.
Of course, there are two new Nikon cameras—we think they're cameras—registered with the governmental regulatory agencies pending. But we're getting close to the go/no go time limit for possible holiday launches (basically the last week of October). Dealers have already committed their cash to what they know they can get; they can't turn on a dime at the last minute. Moreover, given the rumors, what's currently pending in the Nikon launch queue is lower-end products, not the higher-end products that would help Nikon truly make their numbers for the quarter.
Nikon really needs to move a little further and a little faster than they have this year.
