Consider:
- The Z9 started the current generation Z architecture and design (US$5500)
- The Z8 is a mini Z9 (US$3500)
- The Z6 III is a Z8 in a smaller body with a lower pixel count (US$2300)
- The Z50 II is a Z6 III in a smaller body with a lower pixel count (US$910)
We've now traversed from the top-end introduction of EXPEED7 down to the bottom level introduction (and we've had a dials-oriented Zf thrown in the mix, as well). The prices in parentheses are current on-sale price in the US. Let's graph that:
That doesn't seem random to me ;~). It seems that Nikon has put the latest technology into four models that fit into a linear price elasticity of demand curve.
The question quickly becomes, what, if anything would you put between those price points?
We already know one, the Zf, which fits between the last two points. Will there be more?
Everyone, of course, turns to the missing Z7 III, which in theory would be between the middle two points on the above graph. That's certainly possible, but the problem with putting a near copy just under a higher-priced model is that you take sales away from the higher priced model. The Z8 has already been doing that to the Z9. Putting the expected Z7 III—EXPEED7, Z6 III body changes—into the lineup would collapse some Z8 sales.
I've heard two different approaches people claim would clearly differentiate a Z7 III from a Z8: 61mp image sensor, or Zf design and controls. Given that the Sony A7R IV+ has been on the market for five years with that 61mp sensor, the fact that sensor is not particularly well suited to electronic shutter or video, and the declining sales Sony has been seeing on it, I doubt that Nikon would make the 61mp choice. Certainly not without improving the sensor itself, which would be costly. Might as well create a new sensor.
Meanwhile, the Zf dials approach makes sense for the landscape/travel crowd that tends to like the Z7, though I don't think that same crowd would like the size changes.
I've been on record as saying I believe that the Z8 II will be the camera that gets a higher pixel count sensor when that finally arrives, which would then open up room for the Z7 III to grab the Z8 sensor and EXPEED7. But I don't see that happening soon.
So we're back to the headline: what's next? The remaining EXPEED6 cameras are the Z30, Zfc, Z5, and Z7 II. I could see the Z30 eventually getting the Z50 II pass down, and a Z5 II is another (tricky) possibility, but the other two are awkward in the current Z system lineup.
My guess is that in the US$2000 to US$4000 range we get a different camera that's currently unknown. I know of a few ideas that were contemplated back during the pandemic "thinking" time (as opposed to "making" time in R&D), but I haven't heard of any them moving forward. Also, I believe Nikon's next-to-be-announced camera is not a Z at all, but something back in the compact world. Moreover, with RED now adjacent to Z, we don't have a bridge between the two.
But I look at things from other perspectives than just pure product line iteration. To me, there's currently a US$1500 price point that's not being well served. The aging Z5 is currently at Z50 II price! The Zf is discounted awkwardly at US$1800 at the moment, which is not helping Z6 III sales. To me there are three possibilities at that missing price point:
- Z5 II. Seems obvious in one respect, but do you couple the expected EXPEED7 with the really old sensor (Z5), the middle-aged sensor (Zf), or the new sensor (Z6 III)? And how will that play against the other models? What do you leave out from a Z6 III that justifies the lower price?
- Z70. Another obvious possibility, though given the just announced Z50 II, such a camera would almost certainly require a different image sensor (e.g. 26mp), and more. The question is: what would that "more" be? Is Nikon really that committed to DX that they'd introduce a fourth body?
- ZR. Z30-style body, Zf/Z6 III sensor, EXPEED7, with an emphasis on the vlogging side. Think Panasonic S9. Is there really enough market room for yet another vlogger? Will Nikon fill in the missing lenses needed for such an option (e.g. smaller, more wide angle options)?
Of course, then there's this: the Z9 turns four years old next year, and that's typically a modest bump period for the top pro camera. Some of us plan to be in Cortina in February 2026. Will we really still be using a Z9 at the next Olympics?
Nikon R&D has some tough decisions to make now. The easy pickings are essentially now over. I'll be very interested to see where they turn to next in the Z lineup.
